TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-5.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Portland Fireof Phoenix Mercury, Portland Fire
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$91,921
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$93,877

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,921 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6820…1c19backed Phoenix Mercury51c44,921$23,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,101.023455.9%19 W · 15 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+15.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xee0b…e6d4backed Portland Fire48c7,840$3,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,076.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe45d…230dbacked Portland Fire52c7,638$3,972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,666.31650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb18c…694fbacked Portland Fire48c6,060$2,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,151.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick28cpaid+225.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Portland Fire49c4,998$2,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,569.641,76551.7%912 W · 853 L+53.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4c9…617dbacked Portland Fire48c4,000$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0807549.3%37 W · 38 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Portland Fire52c2,335$1,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,128.791,61150.2%809 W · 802 L+37.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2206…49d6backed Portland Fire52c2,311$1,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,099.64560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Portland Fire50c2,250$1,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,132.513048.5%63 W · 67 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked Phoenix Mercury48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9609650%48 W · 48 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc535…9884backed Portland Fire51c2,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$979.971330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick52cpaid-42.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6a03…92d3backed Portland Fire48c1,818$872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$945.186154.1%33 W · 28 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Portland Fire47c1,797$852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$944.9750646.8%237 W · 269 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Portland Fire48c1,690$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$878.5389349.4%441 W · 452 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Phoenix Mercury53c1,645$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$870.4236750.7%186 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Portland Fire49c1,638$808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$830.6837141.2%153 W · 218 L-13.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Portland Fire50c1,600$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8002669.2%18 W · 8 L+3.8wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+26.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Portland Fire49c1,266$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.6641145.7%188 W · 223 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Portland Fire49c1,245$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.0846247%217 W · 245 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7091…96f8backed Portland Fire53c1,241$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.763647.2%17 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x081b…1c6abacked Portland Fire52c1,229$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Phoenix Mercury51c1,099$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.5499548.1%479 W · 516 L+2.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8557…6f88backed Portland Fire55c1,096$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.593959%23 W · 16 L+5.6wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+30.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Phoenix Mercury54c1,015$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.5655255.1%304 W · 248 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd19…3f54backed Phoenix Mercury48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4801838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-21%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa61…7f3bbacked Portland Fire53c966.51$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.5128558.6%167 W · 118 L+20.0wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+12.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Portland Fire48c911$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.7238650.3%194 W · 192 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad0b…a514backed Portland Fire51c799.99$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.9913742.3%58 W · 79 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x28e0…2e6bbacked Portland Fire44c799.98$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.993948.7%19 W · 20 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+17.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf03b…3ba1backed Portland Fire49c741.53$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.184443.2%19 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Phoenix Mercury48c653$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.4412751.2%65 W · 62 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5145…dd71backed Portland Fire50c643.07$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.559251.1%47 W · 45 L+8.6wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+11.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed Phoenix Mercury48c625$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3008743.7%38 W · 49 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Phoenix Mercury48c573.86$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.1483748.1%403 W · 434 L+2.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x584f…54b9backed Phoenix Mercury48c520$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.615746.5%73 W · 84 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Phoenix Mercury50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.816544.6%29 W · 36 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-13.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6dd…7af9backed Phoenix Mercury49c488.1$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.1713249.2%65 W · 67 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2542…7821backed Phoenix Mercury56c446.43$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-50.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked Phoenix Mercury47c412.53$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.530734.2%105 W · 202 L-28.2wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-23.6%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xeef6…cd4cbacked Portland Fire51c317.72$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.689445.7%43 W · 51 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05c5…6a69backed Phoenix Mercury55c301.24$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.7712661.1%77 W · 49 L+11.8wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+18.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Phoenix Mercury48c300$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14485158.4%497 W · 354 L+70.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x40f7…1f5ebacked Portland Fire46c290.08$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.224020%8 W · 32 L-10.5wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-63.2%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Phoenix Mercury49c273.42$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.7232540.3%131 W · 194 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Phoenix Mercury43c240.39$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.3728140.6%114 W · 167 L-1.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9767…1a16backed Phoenix Mercury52c240.38$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1256437.5%24 W · 40 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaad1…172ebacked Portland Fire42c238.1$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.11764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+31.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9930…696ebacked Portland Fire52c204.77$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.388549.4%42 W · 43 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Portland Fire49c203.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.6932750.2%164 W · 163 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b0f…b7aebacked Portland Fire48c202$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.049348.4%45 W · 48 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30f6…004fbacked Portland Fire52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$962352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9714…5152backed Portland Fire53c193$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.714431.8%14 W · 30 L-7.5wins-0.17per pick49cpaid-36.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xafee…881ebacked Phoenix Mercury43c190.7$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-60.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x92f5…52a2backed Portland Fire49c166.09$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.186845.6%31 W · 37 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Portland Fire50c159$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.51533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-31.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Portland Fire51c152.25$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.674942.3%317 W · 432 L-21.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Portland Fire48c141$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.3228647.9%137 W · 149 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1015…c873backed Phoenix Mercury48c125$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603754.1%20 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d42…eb8ebacked Portland Fire52c115.25$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.253534.3%12 W · 23 L-6.7wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-37.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xf3a6…71bdbacked Portland Fire48c113$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.765657.1%32 W · 24 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6769…f8b9backed Phoenix Mercury49c102.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.8wins-0.29per pick52cpaid-58.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc547…c570backed Portland Fire48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5213138.9%51 W · 80 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8537…b98bbacked Portland Fire52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485352.8%28 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Portland Fire51c97.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.8627049.6%134 W · 136 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Phoenix Mercury48c95$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.692248.8%450 W · 472 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c66…e371backed Portland Fire48c91.08$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.3613649.3%67 W · 69 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Phoenix Mercury49c89.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.132346.7%151 W · 172 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Phoenix Mercury51c83.98$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.578447.6%40 W · 44 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Portland Fire48c83.64$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.4914345.5%65 W · 78 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Portland Fire47c77.47$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8220340.9%83 W · 120 L-16.6wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-19.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Phoenix Mercury49c76.34$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1323746.4%110 W · 127 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed Portland Fire51c73.57$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.319257.3%110 W · 82 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x55e7…4fb9backed Portland Fire48c72$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.449351.6%48 W · 45 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Portland Fire50c70.51$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.438744.7%173 W · 214 L+1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9a9…68b6backed Portland Fire49c66$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.663655.6%20 W · 16 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+18.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b9d…3373backed Phoenix Mercury47c62.19$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.231442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f20…5d31backed Portland Fire48c61.9$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.193461.8%21 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Portland Fire48c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.232948.6%160 W · 169 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Portland Fire50c55.96$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.9817343.9%76 W · 97 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x72d0…c89bbacked Portland Fire48c48.92$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.442343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x492a…46aebacked Phoenix Mercury48c47.71$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.91643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e3d…b56cbacked Phoenix Mercury50c45.16$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.581233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-38.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x92aa…0341backed Phoenix Mercury37c45.01$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5670%0 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3450…cee8backed Portland Fire53c44.04$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-26.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Phoenix Mercury50c44.02$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0171245.4%323 W · 389 L-19.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Portland Fire50c44.02$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0138645.9%177 W · 209 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Portland Fire54c43.45$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9937850%189 W · 189 L+9.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x345c…b59dbacked Portland Fire48c41.66$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.661250%6 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24ce…da46backed Portland Fire49c41.61$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.39345.2%42 W · 51 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2892…e9d7backed Portland Fire50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2026054.6%142 W · 118 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd9e…8f17backed Portland Fire50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe84f…b777backed Portland Fire53c37.37$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5313355.6%74 W · 59 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9409…5b36backed Portland Fire42c33.1$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.26530.8%20 W · 45 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-27.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe935…3991backed Portland Fire47c32.01$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.961662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1573…a727backed Portland Fire48c31$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.122343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x25c7…4338backed Portland Fire53c30.28$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.282564%16 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2326…b627backed Portland Fire50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-50%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4108…a80dbacked Portland Fire50c26.08$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.171546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f75…4ba1backed Phoenix Mercury59c25.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9028…8608backed Portland Fire51c23.93$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8415453.2%82 W · 72 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.