WNBA · resolved market
Portland Fire vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 178.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32e96032aa55a327fb1159d5508eaca1c8ced000c6a37014ce9cc8319f4084c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $158,411
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $164,812
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $158,411 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 51c | 100,000$51,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49,000 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -8.9wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2e…896dbacked Over | 49c | 73,721$36,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,123.53 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c8…8f5abacked Over | 47c | 39,299$18,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,367.49 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -6.5wins | -0.36per pick | 47cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…8973backed Over | 51c | 14,330$7,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,279.36 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 50c | 11,973$5,963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,010.2 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 50c | 5,814$2,912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,902.09 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a6…71bdbacked Under | 49c | 5,429$2,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,761.26 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 49c | 4,646$2,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,369.56 | 462 | 47%217 W · 245 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c12…487dbacked Under | 51c | 3,808$1,942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,865.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b6…ca29backed Over | 49c | 3,602$1,764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,764.46 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafe4…f3f7backed Over | 51c | 2,670$1,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,361.45 | 274 | 49.6%136 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd747…076cbacked Over | 50c | 2,560$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb39b…9826backed Over | 49c | 2,286$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 51c | 2,227$1,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,094.42 | 269 | 53.2%143 W · 126 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 51c | 2,226$1,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,090.22 | 243 | 47.7%116 W · 127 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…d647backed Under | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.78 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 51c | 1,600$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784 | 194 | 46.4%90 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 73c | 1,321$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.07 | 321 | 50.2%161 W · 160 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 50c | 1,299$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.5 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x547f…2937backed Over | 51c | 802.99$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.52 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.8wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9c26…d474backed Over | 51c | 668.59$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.12 | 128 | 46.1%59 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 49c | 605.3$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.7 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 50c | 582.03$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.02 | 237 | 46.4%110 W · 127 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 53c | 483.16$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.69 | 509 | 52.5%267 W · 242 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea48…c596backed Over | 50c | 396$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Over | 50c | 395.85$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d42…eb8ebacked Over | 51c | 392.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -6.7wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a1…a119backed Over | 51c | 392.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 64c | 385.35$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.98 | 132 | 56.8%75 W · 57 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 50c | 371.43$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.72 | 641 | 52%333 W · 308 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 50c | 336.26$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.13 | 286 | 47.9%137 W · 149 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 50c | 216.1$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.05 | 386 | 45.9%177 W · 209 L | -15.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34b8…81afbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 50c | 200$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.67 | 173 | 43.9%76 W · 97 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf5…d359backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 49c | 186.85$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.7 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc308…7b09backed Over | 13c | 174.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 449 | 15.6%70 W · 379 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a4…6bdbbacked Over | 26c | 162.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 47c | 151.81$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.46 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 325 | 40.3%131 W · 194 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 44c | 113$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.28 | 506 | 46.8%237 W · 269 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb904…3ef8backed Under | 50c | 110$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 51c | 106$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.94 | 164 | 50%82 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68aa…0f92backed Over | 50c | 104$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…5ac0backed Over | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Over | 28c | 96.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Under | 79c | 93.47$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Over | 37c | 80.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 75c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 347 | 53.9%187 W · 160 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11f6…d13ebacked Over | 50c | 73.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Under | 51c | 67.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.07 | 260 | 54.6%142 W · 118 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Over | 50c | 52.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d18…2365backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -10.7wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 50c | 49.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 74c | 47.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 52c | 42.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 60c | 41.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 192 | 57.3%110 W · 82 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x345c…b59dbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x360a…1098backed Over | 49c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Under | 51c | 35.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e5…6e53backed Under | 51c | 34.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…66a3backed Over | 49c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 323 | 46.7%151 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked Under | 53c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 50c | 22.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 144 | 50%72 W · 72 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…4a24backed Under | 51c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Portland Fire vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 178.5this page
- Portland Fire vs. Phoenix MercuryPortland Fire won
- Portland Fire vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 176.5Under won
- Portland Fire vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 177.5Under won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-4.5)Portland Fire won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-5.5)Portland Fire won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.