Chess · resolved market
Will Magnus Carlsen win Norway Chess 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x388e7ebdc7ad5c27908e6dc075d11c39714e539a909e5c5f78143b003fe83045
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,984
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,698
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,984 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 164 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1a0…c18cbacked No | 71c | 8,547$6,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,521.23 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 3c | 6,785$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 34c | 2,843$966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,876.13 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e51…92bfbacked Yes | 8c | 2,827$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.13 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 61c | 2,661$1,611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050.55 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b1…ed9fbacked Yes | 42c | 2,269$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 1,630$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.1 | 175 | 7.4%13 W · 162 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c07…0c57backed Yes | 8c | 1,600$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe57a…e196backed Yes | 66c | 1,417$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa17c…277bbacked Yes | 57c | 1,382$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ac…43f7backed Yes | 66c | 1,212$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 5c | 1,200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.14 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x880c…440abacked No | 64c | 1,136$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.24 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 44c | 1,048$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.77 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6b…72bdbacked Yes | 6c | 1,045$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed No | 34c | 1,012$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.27 | 123 | 13%16 W · 107 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc853…9d37backed No | 35c | 897$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.38 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2e…6e2dbacked Yes | 1c | 874.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 45c | 869.64$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 58c | 829.22$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.88 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd8…f260backed Yes | 13c | 829$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed No | 39c | 812.46$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd54…597dbacked Yes | 42c | 786.26$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb52c…450cbacked Yes | 57c | 769.52$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.38 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 68c | 734.45$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.01 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c5…7a13backed No | 65c | 621$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.45 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 13c | 594.16$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.01 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 77c | 592.99$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.28 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca14…11bebacked Yes | 43c | 572.46$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.88 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +117.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 59c | 571.82$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x517b…be02backed Yes | 27c | 535.37$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd85b…a848backed Yes | 29c | 525.8$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f60…db9ebacked Yes | 39c | 516.97$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05ac…6d71backed No | 54c | 497.05$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 51c | 485$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07a…4f89backed No | 65c | 460.73$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.73 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57aa…6243backed Yes | 16c | 455.04$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fdb…9e7abacked Yes | 66c | 451.39$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 48c | 447.46$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked Yes | 61c | 408.43$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48d9…2a28backed No | 50c | 399.9$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.9 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 51c | 394.46$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbae…c320backed Yes | 27c | 388.79$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 72c | 381.44$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 34c | 324.9$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +193%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 308$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.94 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 22c | 302.34$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.93 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…d2b1backed No | 68c | 297.07$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3b…b709backed Yes | 69c | 287.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b5…a0d7backed Yes | 15c | 277.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…5b03backed No | 60c | 245.5$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +287.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed No | 34c | 231.52$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc251…a5d3backed Yes | 47c | 225.48$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Yes | 7c | 220.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 26c | 219.24$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.73 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9836…cdd4backed Yes | 46c | 200.16$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…25c0backed Yes | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d89…5382backed No | 59c | 196.7$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f259backed Yes | 71c | 195.83$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 61c | 193.44$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.77 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc898…b0f8backed No | 78c | 192.85$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 69c | 191.76$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.96 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 179.67$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82e8…ffcabacked Yes | 56c | 177.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x615c…5b46backed Yes | 57c | 174.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c8…f559backed Yes | 58c | 173.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 54c | 165.21$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.34 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 162$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.34 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x451e…f3a4backed No | 79c | 157.5$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 68c | 157.2$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f3…5153backed No | 80c | 157$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156c…6178backed Yes | 56c | 155.79$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x606e…1fa6backed No | 71c | 153.39$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.02 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x521c…38f9backed No | 48c | 150.06$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…f823backed Yes | 69c | 150$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…2858backed Yes | 25c | 149.94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6bb…a47fbacked Yes | 39c | 148.25$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x925a…5373backed Yes | 73c | 136.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea2…705ebacked No | 75c | 134$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd4…c292backed Yes | 64c | 130$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e33…e392backed Yes | 34c | 117.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 64c | 115.17$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…b9d0backed Yes | 39c | 115.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc5…5e53backed Yes | 66c | 113.64$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe151…a852backed No | 78c | 106.9$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2f…1e8fbacked Yes | 67c | 104.44$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x990b…7ac3backed Yes | 67c | 100.68$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x635c…9cdfbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecda…6f0abacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe14c…1297backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…f560backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac1…d5a6backed Yes | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5073…16a7backed Yes | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 56c | 96.92$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +59%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 32c | 96.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.58 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 51c | 93.1$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa497…0720backed Yes | 67c | 89.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffee…c768backed Yes | 23c | 86.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 47c | 85.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6747…3695backed Yes | 67c | 82.09$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Magnus Carlsen win Norway Chess 2026?this page
- Will Alireza Firouzja win Norway Chess 2026?No won
- Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Norway Chess 2026?No won
- Will Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu win Norway Chess 2026?Yes won
- Will Vincent Keymer win Norway Chess 2026?No won
- Will Wesley So win Norway Chess 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.