Chess · resolved market
Will Alireza Firouzja win Norway Chess 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fb1ed3e6399b8566a543889b24130dce033c4a600fd4c5f122f55341341cdaf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,389
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,282
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,389 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8c5…7a13backed Yes | 33c | 2,643$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.67 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…c18cbacked No | 67c | 2,217$1,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.29 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 32c | 2,114$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.66 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 15c | 1,181$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.39 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 74c | 995.94$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 79c | 850.45$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 26c | 842.79$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.41 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880c…440abacked Yes | 31c | 767.69$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.49 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48d9…2a28backed Yes | 29c | 755.46$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.55 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 60c | 741.83$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c07…0c57backed Yes | 23c | 611.2$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 59c | 586.34$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.96 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 69c | 578.58$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…d68abacked Yes | 31c | 571.45$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 71c | 570.83$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x517b…be02backed Yes | 22c | 518.27$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 32c | 472.14$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.91 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8164…df78backed Yes | 36c | 454.44$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 428.65$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.37 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 25c | 417.24$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.24 | 175 | 7.4%13 W · 162 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f60…db9ebacked Yes | 26c | 381.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 66c | 353.17$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07a…4f89backed Yes | 49c | 339.17$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.76 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 73c | 338.33$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.62 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…d2b1backed No | 61c | 329.32$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 67c | 325$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83d…861abacked Yes | 35c | 288.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 268$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.35 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d05…864cbacked Yes | 46c | 219.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 208.06$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 69c | 194.43$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.75 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 61c | 192.37$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.82 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 69c | 180$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 58c | 157.59$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.39 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 31c | 156.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x635c…9cdfbacked Yes | 52c | 150$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…5998backed No | 71c | 147.2$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +129.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02d7…0c39backed Yes | 18c | 140$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 20cpaid | +97.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 73c | 131.01$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.97 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 66c | 130$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbae…c320backed No | 46c | 117.38$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 69c | 115.17$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 74c | 107.24$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 74cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb507…e1d3backed No | 77c | 105.88$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 72c | 96.91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +59%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 93.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 75c | 90$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa17c…277bbacked Yes | 63c | 90$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x323e…c94bbacked Yes | 56c | 89.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes | 21c | 87.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 45c | 82.23$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x606e…1fa6backed Yes | 34c | 78.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92fc…a829backed Yes | 19c | 77.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 68c | 73.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked No | 61c | 73.85$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 73c | 73$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c8…6189backed Yes | 38c | 69.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +322.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3e…3918backed Yes | 30c | 67.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 42c | 66.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05fd…d42cbacked Yes | 24c | 65.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc428…bed2backed Yes | 51c | 61.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 33c | 59.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 76c | 57.69$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 72c | 57.22$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0144…3f4cbacked Yes | 29c | 56.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…78e0backed Yes | 33c | 55.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4272…10c2backed No | 79c | 48.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ba…1d56backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e30…1e50backed Yes | 40c | 47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 66c | 46.64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked Yes | 25c | 45.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -42%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 78c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 74c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…20eabacked No | 71c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -30%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d89…6b7cbacked Yes | 30c | 36.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 73c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ce…6185backed No | 76c | 33.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 73c | 30.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 69c | 27.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ea…7b04backed Yes | 45c | 24.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b30…100fbacked No | 47c | 23.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8f…973bbacked Yes | 54c | 23.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x615c…5b46backed Yes | 62c | 23.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked No | 80c | 20.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…9b53backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 67c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4043…ac7fbacked No | 58c | 17.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3714…1af6backed No | 68c | 16.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 76c | 15.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 68c | 15.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alireza Firouzja win Norway Chess 2026?this page
- Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Norway Chess 2026?No won
- Will Magnus Carlsen win Norway Chess 2026?No won
- Will Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu win Norway Chess 2026?Yes won
- Will Vincent Keymer win Norway Chess 2026?No won
- Will Wesley So win Norway Chess 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.