Chess · resolved market
Will Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu win Norway Chess 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeaedebbb5dbf7023078ade9bcddf30252b30fc02c3968a52f01f68258b8b6ffc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,908
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,529
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,908 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 4c | 3,357$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,208.65 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 22c | 2,769$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.71 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…5b03backed Yes | 7c | 2,767$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,567.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +287.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 26c | 1,697$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.27 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48d9…2a28backed Yes | 24c | 1,100$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.48 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…d68abacked Yes | 46c | 913.28$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.75 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 63c | 654.74$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 27c | 610.25$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.61 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 64c | 581.01$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4b…038abacked Yes | 78c | 514.81$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 416.13$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.84 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 14c | 398.63$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c07…0c57backed Yes | 15c | 396.69$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed Yes | 29c | 370$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…5998backed Yes | 18c | 350.01$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +129.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 10c | 333$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +937.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…8feebacked Yes | 50c | 326.59$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 4c | 319.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 5cpaid | +1,230%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc580…371ebacked Yes | 16c | 311.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.54 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 307.64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.6 | 175 | 7.4%13 W · 162 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 74c | 265$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.3 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c8…6189backed Yes | 6c | 262.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +322.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 23c | 261.4$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.36 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 50c | 243.41$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.14 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02d7…0c39backed Yes | 26c | 230$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.17 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 20cpaid | +97.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2c…a520backed Yes | 16c | 222.06$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +128.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked No | 8c | 217.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 5c | 210.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 19c | 198.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 58c | 191.78$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed No | 74c | 187$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.45 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 171$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.09 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 32c | 166.85$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 10c | 140$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…fd6dbacked No | 76c | 140$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -68%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 69c | 139$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed Yes | 12c | 133.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +726.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 17c | 121.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 49c | 115.74$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 11c | 110$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +828.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 80c | 108.09$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.01 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…78e0backed Yes | 15c | 105.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.14 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 17c | 105$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92fc…a829backed Yes | 26c | 94.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x069e…2f84backed Yes | 28c | 87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…515dbacked Yes | 19c | 86.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.44 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4272…10c2backed Yes | 36c | 85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 58c | 77.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 26c | 71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 78c | 53.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 60c | 45.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6bb…a47fbacked Yes | 34c | 44.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2e…6987backed Yes | 80c | 43.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 70c | 33.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 67c | 31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 74cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 38c | 27.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 57c | 25.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu win Norway Chess 2026?this page
- Will Alireza Firouzja win Norway Chess 2026?No won
- Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Norway Chess 2026?No won
- Will Magnus Carlsen win Norway Chess 2026?No won
- Will Vincent Keymer win Norway Chess 2026?No won
- Will Wesley So win Norway Chess 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.