Chess · resolved market
Will Wesley So win Norway Chess 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b205d8f672d057aa0cf0f8ef71e78a2dd0edc254c8d520e8656c90d107dd2ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,432
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,544
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,432 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 2c | 3,476$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.98 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cd…0aa9backed Yes | 57c | 2,650$1,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,508.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 9c | 2,148$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e85abacked Yes | 18c | 1,899$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed Yes | 1c | 1,651$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x880c…440abacked Yes | 17c | 1,195$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.55 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff28…a560backed Yes | 2c | 1,030$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 54c | 944.68$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…c18cbacked No | 65c | 924.11$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.51 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07a…4f89backed Yes | 24c | 875.67$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…d68abacked Yes | 18c | 851.33$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e51…92bfbacked Yes | 15c | 754.94$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.24 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55e2…5fc9backed Yes | 36c | 708.38$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.03 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 70c | 660.35$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.89 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 74c | 592.75$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 49c | 526.61$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.66 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 23c | 416.41$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed Yes | 55c | 370.07$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 370$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.58 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48d9…2a28backed Yes | 37c | 359.94$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.63 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x069e…2f84backed Yes | 51c | 306.77$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 37c | 286.79$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.91 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…b0a0backed Yes | 5c | 239.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.9wins | +0.36per pick | 55cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 58c | 231.44$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.1 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 74c | 218.43$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.02 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 19c | 210.21$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 175 | 7.4%13 W · 162 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…2858backed No | 47c | 197.67$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.76 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 5c | 190.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 5cpaid | +1,230%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 33c | 165.4$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.46 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked Yes | 7c | 140$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 55c | 127$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.81 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 79c | 120.77$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 54c | 109.43$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…5998backed Yes | 34c | 109.22$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +129.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 53c | 101.36$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.61 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 100.4$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2b…2030backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 17c | 98.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 77c | 97.54$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x323e…c94bbacked Yes | 26c | 97.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x606e…1fa6backed Yes | 58c | 97$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 51c | 95.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 53c | 89.4$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4272…10c2backed Yes | 51c | 85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 23c | 81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…4287backed No | 66c | 75.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbc…3a12backed Yes | 36c | 69.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 58c | 65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2e…6987backed Yes | 61c | 63.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…78e0backed Yes | 21c | 50.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe151…a852backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb220…5f71backed No | 68c | 49.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked Yes | 29c | 46.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa17c…277bbacked Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 69c | 36.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 57c | 36.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…20eabacked Yes | 40c | 35.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -30%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4420…3babbacked Yes | 57c | 35.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2afa…a29ebacked Yes | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked Yes | 51c | 33.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -42%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb941…1619backed No | 61c | 32.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2814…5596backed No | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 74cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3714…1af6backed Yes | 55c | 27.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6714…fad2backed No | 63c | 26.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc28a…ac64backed Yes | 58c | 25.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked No | 80c | 25.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 59c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 64c | 22.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ea…7b04backed Yes | 53c | 22.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf4…cd7fbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a5…0a49backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Wesley So win Norway Chess 2026?this page
- Will Alireza Firouzja win Norway Chess 2026?No won
- Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Norway Chess 2026?No won
- Will Magnus Carlsen win Norway Chess 2026?No won
- Will Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu win Norway Chess 2026?Yes won
- Will Vincent Keymer win Norway Chess 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.