Chess · resolved market
Will Vincent Keymer win Norway Chess 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e1693198369296f1a27a76436b754ea64ced46c41d70cbe5970d60ca941f0ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,123
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,781
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,123 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5894…c28ebacked Yes | 2c | 8,351$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 4c | 2,038$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.75 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48d9…2a28backed Yes | 6c | 1,392$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 16c | 1,266$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.77 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,229$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8081…95cabacked Yes | 8c | 729$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked Yes | 2c | 683$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 8c | 514.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 449.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 175 | 7.4%13 W · 162 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71db…1700backed Yes | 3c | 374.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 7c | 296$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 9c | 184.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e51…92bfbacked Yes | 8c | 163.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…78e0backed Yes | 9c | 120.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Vincent Keymer win Norway Chess 2026?this page
- Will Alireza Firouzja win Norway Chess 2026?No won
- Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Norway Chess 2026?No won
- Will Magnus Carlsen win Norway Chess 2026?No won
- Will Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu win Norway Chess 2026?Yes won
- Will Wesley So win Norway Chess 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.