TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Las Vegas Acesof New York Liberty, Las Vegas Aces
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$305,132
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$328,435

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $305,132 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 290 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf070…ac55backed New York Liberty35c28,663$10,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,03210749.5%53 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x684b…8409backed New York Liberty35c17,741$6,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,209.379245.7%42 W · 50 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked New York Liberty12c13,967$1,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,622.2210340.8%42 W · 61 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Las Vegas Aces65c13,014$8,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,606.9536154%195 W · 166 L+0.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc308…7b09backed New York Liberty0c12,550$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0944915.6%70 W · 379 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf148…0b4fbacked New York Liberty25c9,803$2,457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,457.132642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-22.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8717…32c2backed Las Vegas Aces64c7,820$5,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,815.197950.6%40 W · 39 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb272…5030backed Las Vegas Aces63c7,500$4,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,774.972646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked New York Liberty36c7,000$2,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,52010338.8%40 W · 63 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Las Vegas Aces66c6,829$4,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,318.8721446.3%99 W · 115 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2203…84e6backed New York Liberty30c6,500$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,949.98185.6%1 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick20cpaid-77.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Liberty21c5,727$1,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.2532150.2%161 W · 160 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Las Vegas Aces76c5,418$4,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,318.8236750.7%186 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Las Vegas Aces70c5,268$3,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,593.1478548.8%383 W · 402 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked New York Liberty8c5,230$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.8910838.9%42 W · 66 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-9.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd51…1041backed New York Liberty37c4,411$1,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6324763.8%30 W · 17 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+19.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe1ed…25bebacked New York Liberty36c3,514$1,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,264.872142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32d2…8850backed Las Vegas Aces74c3,314$2,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$861.6366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-12.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6195…b9e3backed Las Vegas Aces65c3,141$2,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,099.351353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Las Vegas Aces63c3,111$1,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,146.6915048%72 W · 78 L-0.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Las Vegas Aces66c3,000$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0208159.3%48 W · 33 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Las Vegas Aces65c3,000$1,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,059.994546.7%21 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x124e…1c58backed Las Vegas Aces64c2,714$1,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$977.13548.6%17 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed Las Vegas Aces61c2,645$1,614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,031.631573.3%11 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.20per pick54cpaid+45.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Las Vegas Aces65c2,640$1,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.311,76551.7%912 W · 853 L+53.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fdb…7857backed Las Vegas Aces72c2,625$1,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$743.191776.5%13 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick62cpaid+23%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Las Vegas Aces78c2,600$2,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571.992958.6%17 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Las Vegas Aces70c2,517$1,751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$765.4555255.1%304 W · 248 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Las Vegas Aces75c2,263$1,697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.6750952.5%267 W · 242 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed New York Liberty9c2,200$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.4612045%54 W · 66 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed New York Liberty21c2,043$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.7116633.1%55 W · 111 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-39.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf6f2…b422backed New York Liberty37c2,027$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7506956.5%39 W · 30 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…38c8backed New York Liberty9c2,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1803357.6%19 W · 14 L+3.9wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+20.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed New York Liberty16c1,920$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.1212144.6%54 W · 67 L-0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked New York Liberty22c1,786$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.4819031.1%59 W · 131 L-14.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-43.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Las Vegas Aces78c1,727$1,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.892065%13 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-0.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed New York Liberty23c1,671$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.461,61150.2%809 W · 802 L+37.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c10…b6a4backed New York Liberty28c1,635$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4502552%13 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+35.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Las Vegas Aces65c1,632$1,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571.2317946.9%84 W · 95 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Las Vegas Aces71c1,622$1,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.4820340.9%83 W · 120 L-16.6wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-19.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7bf1…b5afbacked New York Liberty38c1,620$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.65341.5%22 W · 31 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Las Vegas Aces69c1,614$1,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.2619458.2%113 W · 81 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf3a6…71bdbacked Las Vegas Aces65c1,585$1,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.815657.1%32 W · 24 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd21c…2afcbacked Las Vegas Aces74c1,577$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.551662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf83d…367dbacked Las Vegas Aces77c1,575$1,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.61258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked New York Liberty39c1,538$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6002552%13 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked New York Liberty37c1,475$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.752152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed New York Liberty20c1,411$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.1519428.9%56 W · 138 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked New York Liberty17c1,328$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.233040%12 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed New York Liberty34c1,320$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.8340550.9%206 W · 199 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed New York Liberty34c1,317$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.3183748.1%403 W · 434 L+2.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Las Vegas Aces65c1,289$838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.156735.8%24 W · 43 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7120…7c4ebacked New York Liberty23c1,250$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.58228%23 W · 59 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21c6…bc1cbacked Las Vegas Aces64c1,240$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.34450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-22.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed New York Liberty22c1,181$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.1389349.4%441 W · 452 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed New York Liberty19c1,130$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.786934.8%24 W · 45 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x98f9…5cd9backed New York Liberty17c1,097$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1901338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x999a…9a25backed New York Liberty20c1,007$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.610538.1%40 W · 65 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-31.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0373…4057backed New York Liberty35c999.97$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.998733.3%29 W · 58 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed New York Liberty21c999.86$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.2432540.3%131 W · 194 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4dd2…9014backed Las Vegas Aces64c937.5$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.52755.6%15 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd599…bf55backed New York Liberty22c909.09$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002334.8%8 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick39cpaid+9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf731…e5c2backed New York Liberty38c888.51$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3342646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa106…5abbbacked New York Liberty37c826.57$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.833881.6%31 W · 7 L+11.1wins+0.29per pick52cpaid+56.6%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xab4a…823abacked Las Vegas Aces75c820$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x969e…b834backed New York Liberty26c769.23$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002917.2%5 W · 24 L-6.3wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-39.7%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x8927…f5c6backed New York Liberty15c766.99$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.5913024.6%32 W · 98 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x689c…6b1ebacked Las Vegas Aces65c695.64$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.471457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd61…e592backed New York Liberty36c680$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.840%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked New York Liberty27c639.37$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.513844.9%62 W · 76 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked New York Liberty39c605$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.9526953.2%143 W · 126 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc98f…a13fbacked New York Liberty4c602$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.57568.9%5 W · 51 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-71.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x91b6…4b40backed New York Liberty37c569.11$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21012234.4%42 W · 80 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc50…f8debacked New York Liberty37c531.68$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.722944.8%13 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed New York Liberty35c529.95$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.489139.6%36 W · 55 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaab1…9678backed Las Vegas Aces78c512.82$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.82875%6 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x912f…b25bbacked New York Liberty14c508.06$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.161526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Las Vegas Aces75c504.66$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.3826147.1%123 W · 138 L+15.7wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ac1…d5a6backed Las Vegas Aces64c500$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1808657%49 W · 37 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f76…dcc9backed New York Liberty21c483.02$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.4711841.5%49 W · 69 L+0.6wins0.00per pick41cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a0f…d336backed New York Liberty36c476.24$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.4560%0 W · 6 L-2.7wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Las Vegas Aces75c464.46$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.748748.3%42 W · 45 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Las Vegas Aces74c459.27$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.4815654.5%85 W · 71 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69c0…30f9backed Las Vegas Aces65c458.36$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.36366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1245…e0afbacked New York Liberty35c457.74$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.2120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63df…63d1backed New York Liberty22c454.55$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007638.2%29 W · 47 L+8.2wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+35.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed New York Liberty44c451.2$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.057740.3%31 W · 46 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4b2…1c67backed Las Vegas Aces76c449.98$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.992548%12 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed New York Liberty4c430$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.27050%35 W · 35 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+3.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed New York Liberty36c429.92$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.7774942.3%317 W · 432 L-21.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Las Vegas Aces69c422.85$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.7585158.4%497 W · 354 L+70.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc2e7…91a2backed New York Liberty4c420.37$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe73…7d93backed Las Vegas Aces66c418.64$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.345242.3%22 W · 30 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-11.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Las Vegas Aces60c414.64$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.7450646.8%237 W · 269 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4403…4752backed Las Vegas Aces76c410.53$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.53250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed New York Liberty16c392$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.299938.4%38 W · 61 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed New York Liberty35c389.22$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.7334448%165 W · 179 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed New York Liberty35c384.9$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.430347.2%143 W · 160 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16db…ac64backed New York Liberty25c379.15$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.87450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+32.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Las Vegas Aces67c367.76$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.2123955.2%132 W · 107 L+12.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.