WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b0d43348af1c6bd60bad9a597fa80eb1d7c11c0a6cb6e15e3b9fe62ab86d06c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Las Vegas Acesof Las Vegas Aces, New York Liberty
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,955
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,955 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe83b…2d16backed Las Vegas Aces | 54c | 4,979$2,689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,290.48 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Liberty | 45c | 4,056$1,823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,823.31 | 1,787 | 51.7%924 W · 863 L | +54.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed New York Liberty | 46c | 2,664$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,225.41 | 859 | 48.4%416 W · 443 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0de…8048backed Las Vegas Aces | 58c | 1,310$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.37 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed New York Liberty | 47c | 999.99$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.52 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | -19.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…a514backed Las Vegas Aces | 54c | 800$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368 | 145 | 41.4%60 W · 85 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Las Vegas Aces | 52c | 792.01$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.2 | 511 | 47.2%241 W · 270 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 503.43$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.06 | 389 | 40.9%159 W · 230 L | -14.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked New York Liberty | 48c | 396.77$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.51 | 394 | 50.5%199 W · 195 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed New York Liberty | 48c | 337.98$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.23 | 136 | 49.3%67 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…7fd6backed New York Liberty | 57c | 246.55$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc820…49debacked New York Liberty | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d13…92f3backed Las Vegas Aces | 53c | 209.97$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.69 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe73…7d93backed New York Liberty | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b8…31e6backed Las Vegas Aces | 54c | 187.68$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.51 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked New York Liberty | 44c | 147.25$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.7 | 307 | 34.2%105 W · 202 L | -28.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…617dbacked New York Liberty | 47c | 137.97$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.85 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc90a…1834backed Las Vegas Aces | 60c | 124.71$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Liberty | 44c | 105.76$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.85 | 1,012 | 47.9%485 W · 527 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Las Vegas Aces | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Las Vegas Aces | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…256fbacked Las Vegas Aces | 63c | 95.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed New York Liberty | 43c | 94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 761 | 42.7%325 W · 436 L | -19.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…bc1cbacked New York Liberty | 53c | 86.4$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed New York Liberty | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed New York Liberty | 45c | 50.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 344 | 48%165 W · 179 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Las Vegas Aces | 54c | 49.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1,632 | 50.2%819 W · 813 L | +37.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed New York Liberty | 47c | 47.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 427 | 49.4%211 W · 216 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186a…559dbacked Las Vegas Aces | 54c | 44.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Las Vegas Aces | 55c | 44.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 932 | 48.8%455 W · 477 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Las Vegas Aces | 54c | 36.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | -16.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Las Vegas Aces | 52c | 32.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed New York Liberty | 47c | 26.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +9.6wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22cb…23dfbacked Las Vegas Aces | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed New York Liberty | 47c | 24.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 224 | 40.2%90 W · 134 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed Las Vegas Aces | 54c | 22.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Las Vegas Aces | 57c | 22.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd948…f231backed New York Liberty | 50c | 20.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97d4…7b65backed Las Vegas Aces | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Las Vegas Aces | 54c | 19.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Las Vegas Aces | 65c | 18.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 192 | 45.8%88 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5)this page
- New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas AcesLas Vegas Aces won
- New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 178.5Over won
- New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 181.5Over won
- New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 182.5Over won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-4.5)Las Vegas Aces won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-5.5)New York Liberty won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.