WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ab8606b3c81577e5ba08ec1f7ec479dc3cfad0e5fa05c908d13d562184ca998
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Libertyof Las Vegas Aces, New York Liberty
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,467
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,290
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,467 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2114…84c5backed New York Liberty | 52c | 6,192$3,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,972.31 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 3,036$1,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,426.91 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Liberty | 53c | 2,711$1,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,270.35 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 2,111$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.38 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked New York Liberty | 53c | 1,937$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910.53 | 386 | 50.3%194 W · 192 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 1,633$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.16 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Las Vegas Aces | 55c | 1,085$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.14 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked New York Liberty | 53c | 933.07$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.88 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked New York Liberty | 51c | 931.86$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.61 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed New York Liberty | 55c | 684.44$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.84 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x987e…8d7abacked Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 652.17$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +18%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Las Vegas Aces | 51c | 488.47$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.12 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed New York Liberty | 48c | 485.13$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.08 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 426$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.48 | 111 | 56.8%63 W · 48 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 345.72$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.22 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a96…3087backed New York Liberty | 43c | 335.02$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.96 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed New York Liberty | 51c | 264$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.36 | 361 | 54%195 W · 166 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed New York Liberty | 54c | 250$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.04 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Las Vegas Aces | 52c | 234.16$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.85 | 325 | 40.3%131 W · 194 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ce…e232backed New York Liberty | 42c | 230.1$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.46 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 50cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 224.51$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…bc1cbacked Las Vegas Aces | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac40…f5b9backed New York Liberty | 41c | 149.98$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.49 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3309…209dbacked Las Vegas Aces | 54c | 144.72$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.82 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Liberty | 38c | 140$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.8 | 506 | 46.8%237 W · 269 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked New York Liberty | 50c | 106.23$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked New York Liberty | 48c | 103.36$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.93 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x461c…f74bbacked New York Liberty | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51da…a701backed New York Liberty | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 161 | 53.4%86 W · 75 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0938…a9a8backed New York Liberty | 51c | 90.49$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 86$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 286 | 47.9%137 W · 149 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8b…cc69backed New York Liberty | 55c | 70.93$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked New York Liberty | 45c | 69.69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.06 | 371 | 41.2%153 W · 218 L | -13.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x987b…3d00backed New York Liberty | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked New York Liberty | 43c | 63.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.03 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Las Vegas Aces | 39c | 57.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed New York Liberty | 54c | 55.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 123 | 59.3%73 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Las Vegas Aces | 58c | 53.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc547…c570backed New York Liberty | 40c | 51.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Las Vegas Aces | 61c | 50.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 192 | 57.3%110 W · 82 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22a…a35cbacked New York Liberty | 49c | 49.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked New York Liberty | 51c | 49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 211 | 50.2%106 W · 105 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe27…fdeebacked New York Liberty | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Las Vegas Aces | 59c | 42.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 133 | 55.6%74 W · 59 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed New York Liberty | 55c | 39.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 426 | 49.3%210 W · 216 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked New York Liberty | 51c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 285 | 58.6%167 W · 118 L | +20.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked New York Liberty | 50c | 37.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 367 | 50.7%186 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Las Vegas Aces | 53c | 33.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 246 | 56.5%139 W · 107 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed New York Liberty | 55c | 33.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 74 | 70.3%52 W · 22 L | +9.6wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…9c66backed New York Liberty | 47c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0882…dceabacked Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7a…ebe3backed Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 29.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 28.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Las Vegas Aces | 53c | 28.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 154 | 53.2%82 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed New York Liberty | 43c | 27.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 192 | 45.8%88 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e53…92b6backed Las Vegas Aces | 63c | 26.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x831f…cc50backed New York Liberty | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 48cpaid | +112.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0a…b267backed Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 24.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Las Vegas Aces | 53c | 24.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 509 | 52.5%267 W · 242 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…66a3backed New York Liberty | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf6c…b9cfbacked New York Liberty | 54c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 52cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…48a4backed New York Liberty | 52c | 21.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-5.5)this page
- New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas AcesLas Vegas Aces won
- New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 178.5Over won
- New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 181.5Over won
- New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 182.5Over won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5)Las Vegas Aces won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-4.5)Las Vegas Aces won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.