TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

Connecticut Sun vs. Chicago Sky

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Chicago Skyof Connecticut Sun, Chicago Sky
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$184,302
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$201,687

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $184,302 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 213 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa38a…821dbacked Chicago Sky46c11,863$5,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,401.3736950.9%188 W · 181 L+16.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc43…96d3backed Chicago Sky64c8,849$5,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,185.761586.7%13 W · 2 L+4.9wins+0.33per pick54cpaid+64.1%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x6195…b9e3backed Connecticut Sun35c7,830$2,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,768.321353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Connecticut Sun37c6,921$2,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,535.1410438.5%40 W · 64 L+0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Connecticut Sun61c5,796$3,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,518.451,01247.9%485 W · 527 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Connecticut Sun61c5,725$3,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,465.551147.2%241 W · 270 L-2.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Connecticut Sun0c5,450$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.65960%0 W · 96 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x779a…b689backed Chicago Sky63c5,422$3,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,006.327259.7%43 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x684b…8409backed Chicago Sky63c4,864$3,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,799.869644.8%43 W · 53 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Chicago Sky66c4,831$3,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,659.2885948.4%416 W · 443 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Chicago Sky61c3,486$2,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,376.368140.7%33 W · 48 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-33.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x59f4…c1f1backed Connecticut Sun34c3,427$1,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,165.3966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+81.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x689c…6b1ebacked Connecticut Sun35c3,092$1,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,091.071457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Connecticut Sun56c2,268$1,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,262.1251552.6%271 W · 244 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c26…d474backed Chicago Sky47c2,114$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,114.4112846.1%59 W · 69 L+0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc98f…a13fbacked Connecticut Sun1c1,848$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.59568.9%5 W · 51 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-71.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c66…76cdbacked Connecticut Sun36c1,641$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5901275%9 W · 3 L+3.5wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+67.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8a96…3087backed Chicago Sky66c1,640$1,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.52347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce36…2b99backed Connecticut Sun38c1,595$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.56137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.20per pick28cpaid-69.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Connecticut Sun38c1,500$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.5612245.1%55 W · 67 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4260…d5d1backed Chicago Sky68c1,500$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4801100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f2…b422backed Chicago Sky52c1,440$749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691.186956.5%39 W · 30 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc308…7b09backed Connecticut Sun1c1,427$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3445415.6%71 W · 383 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Chicago Sky53c1,405$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.2838940.9%159 W · 230 L-14.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Chicago Sky66c1,400$924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47617946.4%83 W · 96 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4b6…5858backed Connecticut Sun1c1,387$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.51428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-39.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Connecticut Sun37c1,174$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.6221546.5%100 W · 115 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Connecticut Sun4c1,143$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4426147.1%123 W · 138 L+15.7wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Chicago Sky57c1,131$643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.1419231.8%61 W · 131 L-13.7wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-42.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Connecticut Sun33c1,120$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.047035.7%25 W · 45 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-33.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Chicago Sky64c1,110$708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.8111024.5%27 W · 83 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-46%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf83d…367dbacked Connecticut Sun66c1,054$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.711258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…38c8backed Chicago Sky39c1,050$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.483455.9%19 W · 15 L+3.7wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+16.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Connecticut Sun44c1,041$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.956455.1%311 W · 253 L+27.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Connecticut Sun53c1,017$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.6919658.2%114 W · 82 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+4.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0373…4057backed Connecticut Sun36c1,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3608733.3%29 W · 58 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2906…555abacked Chicago Sky38c999.98$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$617.994961.2%30 W · 19 L+6.0wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+19.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Connecticut Sun67c999.9$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.2133839.9%135 W · 203 L-19.8wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-16.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf731…e5c2backed Connecticut Sun63c961$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6082744.4%12 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1250…8f99backed Chicago Sky63c883.3$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.933842.1%16 W · 22 L-5.7wins-0.15per pick57cpaid-31.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x124e…1c58backed Chicago Sky69c870.24$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.573650%18 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Chicago Sky60c865$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34612045%54 W · 66 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Connecticut Sun60c846.69$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.5430347.2%143 W · 160 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Connecticut Sun49c828.32$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.1220440.7%83 W · 121 L-16.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-20.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd21c…2afcbacked Connecticut Sun58c777$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.661662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe73…7d93backed Connecticut Sun65c769.02$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005242.3%22 W · 30 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-11.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Connecticut Sun51c759.75$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.0824255.4%134 W · 108 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4dd2…9014backed Connecticut Sun65c735.53$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.522755.6%15 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Chicago Sky48c704.26$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.416633.1%55 W · 111 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-39.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Connecticut Sun49c701.22$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.7332148.6%156 W · 165 L+0.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa254…244dbacked Chicago Sky67c689.42$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.42450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Connecticut Sun49c688.99$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.5837054.1%200 W · 170 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x969e…b834backed Chicago Sky32c616.7$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.72917.2%5 W · 24 L-6.3wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-39.7%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Sky54c613.94$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.231,63250.2%819 W · 813 L+37.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Chicago Sky70c605.38$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.2385158.4%497 W · 354 L+70.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Connecticut Sun33c598.44$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.4819847.5%94 W · 104 L+0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Connecticut Sun51c598.16$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.1731249.4%154 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Chicago Sky62c587.02$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.8510440.4%42 W · 62 L-0.5wins0.00per pick41cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9263…1999backed Connecticut Sun3c554.52$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7250%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x999a…9a25backed Chicago Sky51c542.36$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.5410739.3%42 W · 65 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-29.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Chicago Sky64c507.31$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.6341051.2%210 W · 200 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dbb…352fbacked Chicago Sky41c500$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.98366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+61.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6f1…b386backed Connecticut Sun66c499.99$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.99450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Chicago Sky65c497.93$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.1376142.7%325 W · 436 L-19.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a76…29dcbacked Connecticut Sun62c491.46$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.55728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.33per pick62cpaid-59.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Connecticut Sun36c470$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.29439.4%37 W · 57 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ac1…d5a6backed Chicago Sky66c450$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1538858%51 W · 37 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ed1…caa2backed Chicago Sky44c430$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2401838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc064…6fa8backed Connecticut Sun46c426.09$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1963342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago Sky52c420.35$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.8232849.4%162 W · 166 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Connecticut Sun48c416.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005240.4%21 W · 31 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ee0…d6a6backed Chicago Sky56c400$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1761560%9 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+21.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x114e…dcefbacked Chicago Sky49c400$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2035752.6%30 W · 27 L+5.0wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5724…dcb7backed Chicago Sky45c395.65$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.651233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-30.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x584f…54b9backed Chicago Sky66c393.06$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.6415746.5%73 W · 84 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabce…2f87backed Chicago Sky47c392.2$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.877357.5%42 W · 31 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc214…105dbacked Connecticut Sun65c378.46$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago Sky53c368.47$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.8490449.4%447 W · 457 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked Chicago Sky49c364.21$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.516538.5%25 W · 40 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-25.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Connecticut Sun38c358.28$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.841,78751.7%924 W · 863 L+54.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91b6…4b40backed Chicago Sky32c339.41$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.2612434.7%43 W · 81 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Connecticut Sun37c332$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.279938.4%38 W · 61 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Connecticut Sun59c326.8$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.615654.5%85 W · 71 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Connecticut Sun72c325.87$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.632263.6%14 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43fe…26eebacked Connecticut Sun10c317.98$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.98535.3%30 W · 55 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53e9…5ef8backed Connecticut Sun55c300$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ceb…b821backed Connecticut Sun36c300$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1083053.3%16 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcc2…8b9bbacked Chicago Sky45c299.98$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.999156%51 W · 40 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Connecticut Sun37c297.32$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.0171245.4%323 W · 389 L-19.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde3d…6b1fbacked Connecticut Sun34c294.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002040%8 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+21.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68da…37b5backed Chicago Sky37c293.35$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.812114.3%3 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-50.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8e18…037dbacked Connecticut Sun70c285.71$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Chicago Sky39c282.89$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.4419628.6%56 W · 140 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Chicago Sky60c273.09$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.4630054%162 W · 138 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x377c…57ddbacked Chicago Sky37c270.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.27250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd599…bf55backed Chicago Sky38c265.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.082334.8%8 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick39cpaid+9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Chicago Sky64c250.26$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.7534826.4%92 W · 256 L-21.2wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-39.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Connecticut Sun6c250$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610838.9%42 W · 66 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-9.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1052…c340backed Connecticut Sun64c234.64$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.281540%6 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Connecticut Sun35c234.2$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.9793248.8%455 W · 477 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.