TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5a76…29dc

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
205
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Lol, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Lol at 54 out of 100; worst WNBA at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Lollast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT13764.2%88 W · 49 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Lol — the 137 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 3 Winnerbacked BNK FearX Youth · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$263Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT+63.8%+$167.61
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 2 Winnerbacked Hanwha Life Esports Challengers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$272Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$272.31
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 1 Winnerbacked BNK FearX Youth · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$491Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT+57.1%+$280.42
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 4 Winnerbacked Kiwoom DRX Challengers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$312Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$312
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 2 Winnerbacked DN SOOPers Challengers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$593Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT+30.8%+$182.7
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 1 Winnerbacked Kiwoom DRX Challengers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Groupbacked Nongshim Red Force · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$348Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$171.4
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winnerbacked BNK FEARX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$128.57
LoL: EDward Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked EDward Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$254.53
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winnerbacked Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$439Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT+84.8%+$372.34
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winnerbacked Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$672Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT+43.3%+$290.79
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked LGD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$475Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$303.69
LoL: Disguised vs Dignitas - Game 2 Winnerbacked Disguised · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+43%+$107.57
LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winnerbacked Sentinels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+97.7%+$140.69
LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winnerbacked Sentinels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$153.23
LoL: SK Gaming vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Regular Seasonbacked Movistar KOI · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$320
LoL: paiN Gaming vs FURIA Esports - Game 1 Winnerbacked paiN Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$192
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports - Game 3 Winnerbacked GAM Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$160
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winnerbacked Invictus Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$187Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$186.86
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Groupbacked Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.2
LoL: Team WE vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked LGD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$189Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+116.5%+$220.36
LoL: Team WE vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked LGD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$568Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+70%+$397.84
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winnerbacked Anyone's Legend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.42
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Groupbacked HANJIN BRION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$224.52
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winnerbacked HANJIN BRION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+64.4%+$79.31
Showing 25 of 137 picks, newest first.
Tennislast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT3060%18 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Monterrey Open: Mayar Sherif vs Oleksandra Oliynykovabacked Oleksandra Oliynykova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$498Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$459.63
Cincinnati Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Frances Tiafoebacked Frances Tiafoe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$275Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$286.22
Cincinnati Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Arthur Filsbacked Arthur Fils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$513Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$230.62
Cincinnati Open: Learner Tien vs Frances Tiafoebacked Learner Tien · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
Cincinnati Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Daniil Medvedevbacked Brandon Nakashima · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+54.9%+$41.45
Cincinnati Open: Andrey Rublev vs Nuno Borgesbacked Andrey Rublev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$374Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$374
ITF W15 Tianjin 3 Women: Maria Kalyakina vs Dabin Kimbacked Maria Kalyakina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$115.49
ITF W15 Tianjin 3 Women: Alisa Vasileva vs Maiko Uchijimabacked Alisa Vasileva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$114.01
Cincinnati Open: Tommy Paul vs Adolfo Vallejobacked Adolfo Vallejo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$581Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$581.4
Cincinnati Open: Alexandra Eala vs Amanda Anisimovabacked Amanda Anisimova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$431Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+43.9%+$189.11
Cincinnati Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Arthur Filsbacked Arthur Fils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$319.67
Cincinnati Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Karen Khachanovbacked Aleksandar Kovacevic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$25.5
Cincinnati Open: Nuno Borges vs Thanasi Kokkinakisbacked Nuno Borges · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+38.6%+$33.27
Cincinnati Open: Coleman Wong vs Daniel Altmaierbacked Coleman Wong · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$144
Cincinnati Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Gael Monfilsbacked Rinky Hijikata · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$369Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT+63.3%+$233.52
National Bank Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Hubert Hurkaczbacked Hubert Hurkacz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
National Bank Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Titouan Droguetbacked Brandon Nakashima · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$771Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$204.96
National Bank Open: Luciano Darderi vs Juncheng Shangbacked Juncheng Shang · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$338Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$338
National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Gael Monfilsbacked Learner Tien · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+37.6%+$21.45
Set Handicap: Tien (-1.5) vs Monfils (+1.5)backed Tien · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$168
National Bank Open: Alex Michelsen vs Francisco Cerundolobacked Alex Michelsen · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,500Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+29.7%+$446.2
National Bank Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Taylor Fritzbacked Taylor Fritz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$105
National Bank Open: Juncheng Shang vs Andrey Rublevbacked Juncheng Shang · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$481Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+302.7%+$1,456.24
Mubadala Citi DC Open: Naomi Osaka vs Alexandra Ealabacked Alexandra Eala · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$902Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+47.2%+$425.72
Los Cabos Open: Cameron Norrie vs Denis Shapovalovbacked Denis Shapovalov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$578Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+110.2%+$636.88
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
MLBlast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT2552%13 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
MLB — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Piratesbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$205
Blake Snell: Strikeouts O/U 6.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Redsbacked Cincinnati Reds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$133.02
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astrosbacked Houston Astros · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$768Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+59.3%+$455.63
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.84
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$238Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$238
Los Angeles Angels vs. Miami Marlinsbacked Los Angeles Angels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$185Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$55.16
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)backed Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$365Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$365.01
Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$278Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$97.68
Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$126
Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$138
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$134.77
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$236Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$106.03
Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked Los Angeles Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.38
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$97.53
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)backed Miami Marlins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$225Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$234.1
Boston Red Sox vs. Athleticsbacked Boston Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$147Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$125.4
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.57
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigersbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$125.03
Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$129Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$75.79
San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Bravesbacked Atlanta Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$132
San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$316Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$238.54
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardiansbacked Minnesota Twins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$147
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jaysbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$227Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$157.7
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardiansbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
All 25 picks, newest first.
WNBAlast resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.33per pick62cpaid-59.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
WNBA — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Astralis - Map 2 Winnerbacked Astralis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$280Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+36%+$100.68
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFLlast resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Seahawks vs. Titansbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$422Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$421.84
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.