TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sentinelsof Sentinels, FlyQuest
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$276,639
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$328,645

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $276,639 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 279 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xff80…9b4dbacked FlyQuest48c20,096$9,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,674.837245.2%168 W · 204 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed FlyQuest33c18,252$5,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,938.071,37937.7%520 W · 859 L-43.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked Sentinels51c16,708$8,517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,191.2921948.4%106 W · 113 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa103…1c14backed FlyQuest49c16,000$7,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,8406844.1%30 W · 38 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf70f…3c97backed Sentinels59c13,046$7,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,291.3816456.7%93 W · 71 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid+4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked Sentinels63c12,913$8,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,792.081,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Sentinels61c11,635$7,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,557.151,20054.1%649 W · 551 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc69b…2076backed FlyQuest39c8,465$3,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,259.2969741.5%289 W · 408 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed Sentinels60c7,085$4,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,864.7557957.9%335 W · 244 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Sentinels60c7,003$4,223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,779.461,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x141a…d05abacked Sentinels64c6,265$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,264.7521968%149 W · 70 L+28.8wins+0.13per pick55cpaid+38.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x258b…e840backed FlyQuest42c4,897$2,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,075.3120%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Sentinels54c4,582$2,456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,126.2455844.6%249 W · 309 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed FlyQuest39c4,350$1,681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,680.9351146.8%239 W · 272 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37e9…eedebacked FlyQuest43c4,340$1,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,886.9717444.8%78 W · 96 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a35…9015backed FlyQuest28c4,339$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20036943.9%162 W · 207 L-16.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked FlyQuest45c4,139$1,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,842.051,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd38a…8d26backed FlyQuest50c4,116$2,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,059.23857.9%22 W · 16 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked FlyQuest39c3,659$1,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,43575630%227 W · 529 L-21.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58a3…5336backed Sentinels65c3,381$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,181.376663.6%42 W · 24 L+9.3wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+44%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked FlyQuest26c3,156$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813.641,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked FlyQuest39c3,070$1,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,191.092,82041.4%1,167 W · 1,653 L-14.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Sentinels59c3,000$1,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2301,43557.4%824 W · 611 L+36.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked FlyQuest40c2,795$1,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,130.231,00342.5%426 W · 577 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed FlyQuest42c2,668$1,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,110.7685442.7%365 W · 489 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed Sentinels53c2,662$1,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,241.2289943.4%390 W · 509 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dc5…c07dbacked Sentinels63c2,500$1,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$934.955160.8%31 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x67ba…246cbacked FlyQuest44c2,282$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00026551.7%137 W · 128 L+12.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x96f7…d6aebacked FlyQuest41c2,106$854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853.518339.8%33 W · 50 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x10ef…7d7bbacked FlyQuest40c2,095$829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$829.0465359.4%388 W · 265 L+70.3wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x3724…69b5backed FlyQuest40c2,054$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82213947.5%66 W · 73 L+9.0wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+7.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x59cb…57d1backed Sentinels58c2,017$1,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$846.7514555.9%81 W · 64 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x565c…878dbacked FlyQuest9c2,005$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.1513530.4%41 W · 94 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe410…d4d1backed FlyQuest38c2,000$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.815352.9%81 W · 72 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick55cpaid+4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc387…5a97backed Sentinels73c1,981$1,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.9560354.7%330 W · 273 L-2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bab…6832backed FlyQuest40c1,859$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75050845.3%230 W · 278 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe881…19abbacked FlyQuest1c1,700$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174314.9%21 W · 410 L-1.8wins0.00per pick5cpaid-86.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdee7…1ad7backed Sentinels62c1,577$978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.2912962.8%81 W · 48 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37ca…f644backed Sentinels64c1,569$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.2424658.5%144 W · 102 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdfb…980cbacked Sentinels59c1,482$874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.4319150.8%97 W · 94 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Sentinels58c1,467$854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.681,09638.9%426 W · 670 L-47.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked FlyQuest20c1,338$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.631,30147.2%614 W · 687 L-32.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed FlyQuest35c1,323$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.072,18733.3%729 W · 1,458 L-71.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21a3…3e5cbacked Sentinels64c1,276$817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.296863.2%43 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfad…fa05backed Sentinels63c1,270$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.841,21858.1%708 W · 510 L+44.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f8e…0c69backed FlyQuest40c1,250$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002722.2%6 W · 21 L-5.3wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-48.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa514…9c8fbacked FlyQuest49c1,224$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60014452.1%75 W · 69 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x253e…84e4backed FlyQuest42c1,200$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50622746.3%105 W · 122 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeebb…0b96backed Sentinels50c1,188$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.7228035%98 W · 182 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-19.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d85…f4e0backed Sentinels52c1,149$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.5464247.4%304 W · 338 L+24.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked FlyQuest40c1,121$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.4187844.2%388 W · 490 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d7e…2ef7backed Sentinels49c1,101$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561.4938963%245 W · 144 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b50…ea47backed FlyQuest9c1,100$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,29426.6%344 W · 950 L+65.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda16…ac2bbacked Sentinels51c1,057$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.8415147%71 W · 80 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0160…1224backed FlyQuest37c1,053$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39223639.8%94 W · 142 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91a2…e415backed FlyQuest41c1,052$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.3213542.2%57 W · 78 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Sentinels67c1,043$702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.7977641.6%323 W · 453 L-27.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-26.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Sentinels50c1,039$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.4130357.1%173 W · 130 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd967…1409backed Sentinels75c1,036$776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26012160.3%73 W · 48 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35b7…fbcfbacked FlyQuest6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6027367%183 W · 90 L+26.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+20.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf0da…749bbacked FlyQuest6c1,000$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5667115.4%103 W · 568 L-28.9wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-57.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfa8…cae6backed Sentinels64c900$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.5382953.4%443 W · 386 L-3.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb11…66cbbacked Sentinels60c900$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3601,01955.8%569 W · 450 L+22.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc653…300dbacked FlyQuest32c899.99$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2852846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-17.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd17a…9900backed Sentinels57c877.19$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.192343.5%10 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe360…71fabacked FlyQuest28c854.29$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.81520%3 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-55.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6455…2604backed Sentinels60c831.99$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.2317961.5%110 W · 69 L+15.4wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+15%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed Sentinels50c806.53$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.8962942.4%267 W · 362 L-3.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0bd7…8553backed Sentinels62c800$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30469857.4%401 W · 297 L+37.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+11.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed FlyQuest39c789.49$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.161,04450.4%526 W · 518 L+37.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid0%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5dee…30b1backed Sentinels64c781.25$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.2519063.2%120 W · 70 L+16.2wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+15.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Sentinels64c779.44$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.4421458.9%126 W · 88 L+12.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x18b7…fff9backed FlyQuest8c750$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6055010.4%57 W · 493 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+55.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb20b…a3e1backed FlyQuest50c745$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.56051.7%31 W · 29 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ad8…8125backed Sentinels62c727$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.261181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick66cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked FlyQuest37c723.45$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.942,92344.5%1,300 W · 1,623 L-91.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe663…e9f8backed Sentinels56c712.81$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.8111851.7%61 W · 57 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x803c…406abacked FlyQuest8c706.71$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601040%4 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7771…009fbacked Sentinels58c700$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2961,00748.2%485 W · 522 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e18…872ebacked Sentinels59c677.41$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.418264.6%53 W · 29 L+6.0wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+16.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…a2cbbacked FlyQuest37c675.68$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25024554.3%133 W · 112 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Sentinels73c667.98$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.441,91742.3%810 W · 1,107 L-44.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5ea…d07fbacked Sentinels53c635.56$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.8395951.3%492 W · 467 L+42.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0328…bd17backed Sentinels63c635.3$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.315857.6%91 W · 67 L+10.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x16f1…e1d1backed Sentinels66c615.36$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.1538851.3%199 W · 189 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed FlyQuest49c612.24$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,00747.9%482 W · 525 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a99…51bbbacked Sentinels49c612.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.2482650%413 W · 413 L+3.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed FlyQuest41c600$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24660053.2%319 W · 281 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb53…7b74backed Sentinels55c595.84$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.1348763.2%308 W · 179 L+20.1wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked FlyQuest48c544$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.1277949.9%389 W · 390 L+12.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x532b…30c1backed Sentinels75c520.25$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.169339.8%37 W · 56 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+26.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbafa…02e0backed Sentinels59c515.29$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.579650.6%403 W · 393 L+47.2wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed FlyQuest34c500$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.322,49047.3%1,179 W · 1,311 L-31.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fbc…f944backed Sentinels72c500$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.1846263.9%295 W · 167 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed FlyQuest38c500$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1901,18044.5%525 W · 655 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe74b…ee88backed Sentinels59c500$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20586251.3%442 W · 420 L+51.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd7b2…70f0backed FlyQuest5c450$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.531327.8%87 W · 226 L+11.3wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x93f4…ea90backed FlyQuest41c449.99$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.491,11049%544 W · 566 L+42.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x79ac…9c87backed FlyQuest51c447.99$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.476838.2%26 W · 42 L+0.3wins0.00per pick38cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28fd…00d0backed Sentinels57c436.78$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.7825259.1%149 W · 103 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.