TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sentinelsof Sentinels, FlyQuest
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$438,964
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$544,584

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $438,964 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 313 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe907…cff6backed FlyQuest1c43,946$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.512,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf496…fe79backed FlyQuest5c43,288$2,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,102.0430546.9%143 W · 162 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked Sentinels58c21,132$12,339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,793.281,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d85…f4e0backed FlyQuest15c12,200$1,827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,826.8364247.4%304 W · 338 L+24.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked Sentinels60c11,539$6,973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,565.031,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked FlyQuest38c10,000$3,813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,813.451,00342.5%426 W · 577 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa103…1c14backed FlyQuest52c9,241$4,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,805.136844.1%30 W · 38 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Sentinels47c9,222$4,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,868.911,20054.1%649 W · 551 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf23c…9f81backed Sentinels60c8,863$5,361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,502.615062%93 W · 57 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked FlyQuest52c8,334$4,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,361.5122048.2%106 W · 114 L+11.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed FlyQuest45c8,226$3,674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,674.391,38937.7%524 W · 865 L-45.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf70f…3c97backed Sentinels50c7,902$3,931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,970.6516456.7%93 W · 71 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid+4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed FlyQuest40c7,078$2,803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,802.785442.7%365 W · 489 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed FlyQuest53c7,000$3,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,709.9957957.9%335 W · 244 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Sentinels47c6,666$3,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,532.971,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked FlyQuest50c5,930$2,964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,964.251,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f3a…5ad0backed Sentinels48c5,000$2,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,616.174639.1%18 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a35…9015backed FlyQuest53c4,717$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50036943.9%162 W · 207 L-16.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x96f7…d6aebacked Sentinels43c4,448$1,911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,537.238339.8%33 W · 50 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x58a3…5336backed FlyQuest42c4,358$1,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8506663.6%42 W · 24 L+9.3wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+44%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed FlyQuest38c4,101$1,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,554.092,20233.3%733 W · 1,469 L-72.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Sentinels47c4,078$1,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,161.9690348.4%437 W · 466 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6f1…5729backed Sentinels67c3,957$2,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,289.8916162.1%100 W · 61 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2518…254fbacked Sentinels45c3,839$1,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,101.9953355%293 W · 240 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xed08…e082backed FlyQuest55c3,645$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00019860.1%119 W · 79 L-0.3wins0.00per pick60cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ec8…1d07backed FlyQuest58c3,445$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00012454%67 W · 57 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb11…66cbbacked FlyQuest13c3,410$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4561,01955.8%569 W · 450 L+22.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb35f…cf4cbacked Sentinels53c3,408$1,806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,602.1644846.2%207 W · 241 L+1.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4873…15babacked Sentinels47c3,384$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,784.4117852.8%94 W · 84 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x141a…d05abacked FlyQuest60c3,345$2,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,009.9421968%149 W · 70 L+28.8wins+0.13per pick55cpaid+38.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x71d6…7248backed FlyQuest7c3,333$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.314617.4%8 W · 38 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d7e…2ef7backed FlyQuest57c3,300$1,869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,86939162.7%245 W · 146 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed FlyQuest50c3,000$1,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,51045338%172 W · 281 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c8c…077bbacked FlyQuest55c2,992$1,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6382646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa514…9c8fbacked FlyQuest41c2,941$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20014552.4%76 W · 69 L-0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10ef…7d7bbacked Sentinels69c2,584$1,778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$806.0166559.5%396 W · 269 L+72.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x59cb…57d1backed Sentinels44c2,294$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,294.3214656.2%82 W · 64 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ba…246cbacked Sentinels47c2,112$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,112.126551.7%137 W · 128 L+12.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x565c…878dbacked Sentinels48c2,075$996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,078.9413530.4%41 W · 94 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Sentinels65c1,995$1,307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$688.6663944.6%285 W · 354 L-18.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd5f…85d5backed FlyQuest45c1,985$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.54654.3%25 W · 21 L+5.1wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Sentinels41c1,961$809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,151.981,11339%434 W · 679 L-44.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Sentinels50c1,817$903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$913.722,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe410…d4d1backed FlyQuest53c1,746$917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$917.415352.9%81 W · 72 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick55cpaid+4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe881…19abbacked FlyQuest1c1,700$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174314.9%21 W · 410 L-1.8wins0.00per pick5cpaid-86.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d76…1298backed Sentinels49c1,595$782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$813.454845.8%22 W · 26 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-19.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0188…91babacked Sentinels43c1,544$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$880.0811145%50 W · 61 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed FlyQuest21c1,505$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.141,04750.3%527 W · 520 L+37.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed FlyQuest50c1,500$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74529447.6%140 W · 154 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid+8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62c6…ab7bbacked Sentinels49c1,412$692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720.2283560.8%508 W · 327 L+45.1wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc186…e96ebacked FlyQuest51c1,176$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60015752.2%82 W · 75 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3724…69b5backed Sentinels44c1,163$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.2113947.5%66 W · 73 L+9.0wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+7.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2cad…eb66backed FlyQuest32c1,149$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.6848157.6%277 W · 204 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked FlyQuest52c1,134$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.782,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked Sentinels46c1,100$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593.991,18548.1%570 W · 615 L-2.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2316…9819backed FlyQuest50c1,088$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.976943.5%30 W · 39 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ca0…38babacked FlyQuest10c1,053$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.071,44343.4%626 W · 817 L+105.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+20.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0bab…6832backed Sentinels48c1,042$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.8950845.3%230 W · 278 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed FlyQuest51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5101,30838.6%505 W · 803 L-64.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x215a…7275backed FlyQuest29c999.98$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29015534.8%54 W · 101 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+18%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda16…ac2bbacked FlyQuest52c999.98$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.9915147%71 W · 80 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e91…ea34backed Sentinels77c942.12$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.0550569.9%353 W · 152 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91e8…f1abbacked FlyQuest72c938.09$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.89966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85fb…89babacked Sentinels48c930$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.617439.1%68 W · 106 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdfb…980cbacked Sentinels48c909.03$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.719150.8%97 W · 94 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked FlyQuest28c899.98$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.160347.9%289 W · 314 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed FlyQuest58c857.88$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50021458.9%126 W · 88 L+12.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x93b1…4781backed Sentinels45c847.72$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.7310155.4%56 W · 45 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3752…2f08backed FlyQuest52c840.47$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.6432045.6%146 W · 174 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d91…16abbacked FlyQuest51c800$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40813456.7%76 W · 58 L+8.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf9a4…8427backed FlyQuest13c775.45$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017947.5%85 W · 94 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bd7…8553backed Sentinels47c752.91$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.0470057.3%401 W · 299 L+36.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x18b7…fff9backed FlyQuest8c750$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6055110.3%57 W · 494 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+55.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc104…e684backed Sentinels36c749.99$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4771233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e18…872ebacked FlyQuest54c740.74$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4008264.6%53 W · 29 L+6.0wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+16.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked FlyQuest53c700$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37130357.1%173 W · 130 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed FlyQuest51c673.56$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.971,94048.1%934 W · 1,006 L+22.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc387…5a97backed Sentinels30c664.02$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.0260354.7%330 W · 273 L-2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7374…f266backed FlyQuest61c655.74$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4005740.4%23 W · 34 L-6.8wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-24.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0160…1224backed FlyQuest57c640.35$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36523639.8%94 W · 142 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ac3…6ec2backed FlyQuest68c633.2$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.6411856.8%67 W · 51 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe663…e9f8backed Sentinels50c605.81$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.8112552.8%66 W · 59 L+10.1wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+13.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x53da…7603backed Sentinels53c600$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.0615161.6%93 W · 58 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5ea…d07fbacked Sentinels50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30095951.3%492 W · 467 L+42.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x09a6…73c7backed FlyQuest67c595.72$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4003969.2%27 W · 12 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+16.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…a2cbbacked FlyQuest34c592.35$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20024554.3%133 W · 112 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a3d…4d49backed Sentinels50c582.6$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.865757.9%33 W · 24 L+5.4wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+13.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x734e…edbdbacked FlyQuest42c571.64$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.093351.5%17 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked FlyQuest45c561.42$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.461,97130.5%601 W · 1,370 L-170.0wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-43.4%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xdfa8…cae6backed Sentinels48c550$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28682953.4%443 W · 386 L-3.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked FlyQuest40c525.04$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.411,92242.2%811 W · 1,111 L-45.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x797b…26d2backed Sentinels46c519.06$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.0610650%53 W · 53 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6af…d575backed FlyQuest59c511.19$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004247.6%20 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed FlyQuest38c500.39$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.682,49547.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked FlyQuest50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25048847.3%231 W · 257 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x93f4…ea90backed FlyQuest50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501,11049%544 W · 566 L+42.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc27f…2a25backed FlyQuest52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26096452.7%508 W · 456 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed FlyQuest50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25063546.6%296 W · 339 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5acf…ead4backed Sentinels47c500$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26416146%74 W · 87 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Sentinels47c499.99$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.991,18044.5%525 W · 655 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.