MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2aed63ef255890112504451953f5ec6137ae33cf9853e3d80f947fa3144c073b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Toronto Blue Jays, Chicago Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,436
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,427
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,436 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago Cubs | 61c | 1,457$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.01 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Chicago Cubs | 62c | 975.4$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.65 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 831.19$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.65 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…83dabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 789.76$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Chicago Cubs | 33c | 544.79$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.01 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a76…29dcbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 67c | 544.79$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.01 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 454.64$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.22 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Chicago Cubs | 60c | 342$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.8 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 319$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.41 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Chicago Cubs | 61c | 168.2$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Chicago Cubs | 61c | 164.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.18 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb464…cd5fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 125.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 125$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 111.11$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.11 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 102.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 89.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 83.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 445 | 53.5%238 W · 207 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 82.03$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago Cubs | 61c | 68.45$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Chicago Cubs | 65c | 61.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 55.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Chicago Cubs | 60c | 55.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 50.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked Chicago Cubs | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 42.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 41.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 41.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 34.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07f1…3b8ebacked Chicago Cubs | 59c | 33.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 33.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Chicago Cubs | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Chicago Cubs | 63c | 22.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Chicago Cubs | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c8…97b4backed Chicago Cubs | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Chicago Cubs | 60c | 17.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 2.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 4.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.