MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x292fc48a11f3e6100dbcab6dc08672cf73b44836e7e1d031e48ba6b0bc7b7f7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,025
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,994
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,025 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfdfc…bf06backed No | 60c | 2,858$1,709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,708.79 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 41c | 2,303$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,353.5 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 42c | 1,500$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.5 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 44c | 1,330$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.83 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…0a73backed No | 57c | 1,058$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 186 | 58.6%109 W · 77 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Yes | 41c | 1,019$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.65 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed No | 56c | 836.86$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.64 | 204 | 55.9%114 W · 90 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed No | 55c | 814.26$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.84 | 281 | 52%146 W · 135 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a6…71bdbacked Yes | 45c | 764.37$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.4 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed No | 59c | 750$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.27 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea39…9d34backed No | 57c | 599.99$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…712dbacked No | 56c | 540$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.4 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…7d1dbacked No | 57c | 524.64$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Yes | 43c | 523.85$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.38 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…361dbacked No | 57c | 500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Yes | 41c | 499.99$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.99 | 214 | 49.5%106 W · 108 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 43c | 380.47$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.68 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked No | 57c | 315$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.55 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…edc5backed No | 57c | 263.16$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3157…7ebdbacked Yes | 44c | 250$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 42c | 246.23$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.73 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Yes | 44c | 234$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.04 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…6b8fbacked No | 57c | 218.64$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaea5…26e3backed No | 57c | 217.41$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 194 | 54.6%106 W · 88 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07ea…f3a4backed No | 57c | 176.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed No | 25c | 167.4$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 233 | 51.1%119 W · 114 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc7…7275backed No | 60c | 167.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Yes | 43c | 155$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.35 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Yes | 44c | 145.57$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.95 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0477…631cbacked No | 57c | 131.58$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 171 | 55.6%95 W · 76 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…2504backed No | 58c | 114.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2645…ccc3backed No | 57c | 109.65$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdd…e70ebacked Yes | 46c | 108$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.32 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 44c | 105$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.75 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186b…9bbabacked Yes | 44c | 102.82$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.58 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…51debacked No | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 222 | 57.7%128 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 44c | 63.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.16 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6540backed Yes | 43c | 57.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 148 | 48.6%72 W · 76 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…2c65backed No | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 219 | 54.8%120 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 40c | 44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x403c…7f06backed Yes | 44c | 41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeccc…f0f8backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…af02backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 47c | 39.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c47…b30abacked No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 41c | 33.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3534…a1b3backed No | 60c | 33.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked No | 57c | 31.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubsthis page
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 2.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 4.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.