MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x488ec5c7676848bc50a8b08c8900c2bf8c5edd09992ac2f791976f89102583eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $238,724
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $239,190
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $238,724 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Under | 53c | 212,186$112,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99,972.41 | 481 | 48.6%234 W · 247 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 47c | 132,978$62,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62,499.56 | 444 | 46.8%208 W · 236 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 47c | 62,342$29,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,279.12 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 49c | 14,172$6,944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,944.25 | 1,681 | 50.1%842 W · 839 L | -22.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 46c | 4,961$2,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,279.25 | 883 | 49.3%435 W · 448 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Under | 51c | 3,930$2,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,925.7 | 712 | 53.4%380 W · 332 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 55c | 3,496$1,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,573.36 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 2,133$1,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018.38 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 47c | 1,976$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$928.91 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 47c | 1,859$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.73 | 495 | 40.2%199 W · 296 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Over | 43c | 1,545$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.35 | 246 | 51.6%127 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 45c | 1,321$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.47 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 47c | 1,177$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.98 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Under | 54c | 1,111$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.11 | 662 | 50.2%332 W · 330 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42ab…0d2dbacked Under | 53c | 1,060$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.38 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 52c | 1,041$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.18 | 686 | 52.9%363 W · 323 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 47c | 987.29$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.03 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 46c | 925.93$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.93 | 999 | 24.6%246 W · 753 L | -70.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…3da3backed Under | 53c | 925.92$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.18 | 169 | 47.9%81 W · 88 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 55c | 910.03$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.51 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Under | 56c | 625$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 257 | 51.8%133 W · 124 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5257…f324backed Under | 55c | 619.36$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.41 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 47c | 605$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.49 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Over | 48c | 600$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 616 | 52.8%325 W · 291 L | +31.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 48c | 585$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.46 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 53c | 507.97$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.93 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 56c | 465.06$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.62 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…bd3bbacked Over | 4c | 459.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 47c | 428.99$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.62 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3e…bcf8backed Over | 48c | 266.95$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.14 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | +9.3wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 51c | 261.99$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.38 | 802 | 55%441 W · 361 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…2504backed Under | 53c | 257.4$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.98 | 103 | 49.5%51 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 551 | 46.8%258 W · 293 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Under | 53c | 188$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.36 | 114 | 57%65 W · 49 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 47c | 185.19$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.63 | 475 | 52%247 W · 228 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 44c | 182.52$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.31 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 45c | 169.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Under | 52c | 149.98$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 232 | 55.2%128 W · 104 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 47c | 143.83$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.86 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Over | 47c | 134$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.98 | 455 | 45.7%208 W · 247 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Under | 50c | 133$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 754 | 53.2%401 W · 353 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 50c | 130$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 448 | 45.8%205 W · 243 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43a8…e9d9backed Under | 53c | 120.38$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.58 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6feb…c082backed Over | 47c | 119.04$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.95 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 45c | 111.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.21 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,212 | 50%606 W · 606 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 999 | 47.5%475 W · 524 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Over | 47c | 97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Over | 11c | 92.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +118%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Over | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Under | 51c | 78.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.51 | 325 | 52.9%172 W · 153 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Over | 47c | 73.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…44d6backed Under | 70c | 71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Under | 50c | 64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 138 | 53.6%74 W · 64 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Over | 47c | 62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 55c | 59.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 52c | 52.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Over | 48c | 52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 477 | 52.8%252 W · 225 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Under | 51c | 47.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 425 | 48.2%205 W · 220 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 50c | 43.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Over | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Under | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 226 | 52.2%118 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc203…8beebacked Under | 56c | 25.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 132 | 63.6%84 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357a…951ebacked Under | 53c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Under | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 2.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 4.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.