MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x399996647963e392532b389d4f2c797970ce2eb6ca9eab3872324e01804b9027
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,021
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,554
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,021 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Over | 59c | 6,193$3,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,654.02 | 356 | 43.5%155 W · 201 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…396cbacked Under | 41c | 5,950$2,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,510.53 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 53c | 1,612$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.62 | 686 | 52.9%363 W · 323 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 58c | 1,034$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 42c | 829.45$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.08 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 44c | 622.79$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.99 | 616 | 52.8%325 W · 291 L | +31.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 56c | 514.68$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.22 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Under | 46c | 471.04$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.36 | 493 | 58.8%290 W · 203 L | +30.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 58c | 430$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.4 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 59c | 413.21$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.79 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 42c | 400$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 60c | 379$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.4 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 47c | 363.09$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.07 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 47c | 314.87$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.88 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 41c | 294.4$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.04 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Over | 53c | 265.08$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.49 | 233 | 51.1%119 W · 114 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 43c | 240$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.2 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 5c | 229.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 47c | 226.06$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.81 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 60c | 200$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 475 | 52%247 W · 228 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 58c | 165.15$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.48 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 59c | 150$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.87 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 57c | 145.15$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.74 | 883 | 49.3%435 W · 448 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 42c | 142.41$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.6 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 39c | 140.06$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.06 | 448 | 45.8%205 W · 243 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…e7d1backed Under | 46c | 140.01$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.02 | 358 | 49.4%177 W · 181 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 41c | 139$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.01 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e6…d471backed Over | 60c | 128.52$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.11 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 59c | 114.12$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.33 | 413 | 46.7%193 W · 220 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…df1dbacked Under | 40c | 110$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Over | 60c | 98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 333 | 52.3%174 W · 159 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 45c | 85.02$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.34 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Over | 54c | 79.61$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Over | 60c | 77$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Over | 60c | 49.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 47c | 49.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 676 | 53.1%359 W · 317 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Over | 56c | 37.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -13.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 60c | 37.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 444 | 46.8%208 W · 236 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a6…252abacked Under | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5this page
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 2.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 4.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.