MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e8586001e88494bdaa761e31cb4b6685c71dbb01c1e87cdd83bd9c7aa427635
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,177
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,078
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,177 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e6e…be00backed Yes | 42c | 13,331$5,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,760.91 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed No | 58c | 6,948$4,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,030.07 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04e6…3914backed No | 59c | 3,650$2,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,153.63 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed No | 58c | 1,724$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.92 | 204 | 55.9%114 W · 90 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…0a73backed No | 58c | 1,207$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 186 | 58.6%109 W · 77 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Yes | 41c | 1,200$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.99 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 42c | 993.93$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.48 | 167 | 46.7%78 W · 89 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c10…b6a4backed No | 58c | 862.07$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed No | 60c | 837.57$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 281 | 52%146 W · 135 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 41c | 580.84$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.99 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 41c | 542.78$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.24 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…712dbacked No | 58c | 500$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 41c | 467.96$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.12 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea39…9d34backed No | 58c | 443.26$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.09 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Yes | 45c | 436$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.86 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Yes | 25c | 372.57$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.85 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1025…7e11backed No | 55c | 280$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…7d1dbacked No | 59c | 254.24$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a76…29dcbacked No | 61c | 246.75$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Yes | 41c | 240$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.6 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked No | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb1…eac3backed No | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 74c | 173.82$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.79 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…9351backed No | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9abb…3f96backed No | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 70c | 150.73$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.15 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74fc…492cbacked No | 76c | 131.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 55 | 76.4%42 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 42c | 126$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.08 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Yes | 32c | 116$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.28 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 42c | 110.8$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.26 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 58c | 107.73$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.42 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f38…39f2backed No | 59c | 106.78$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Yes | 31c | 94.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.98 | 138 | 58.7%81 W · 57 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad8…5004backed No | 58c | 91.93$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.32 | 188 | 55.3%104 W · 84 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67d3…b524backed No | 59c | 83.73$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Yes | 45c | 62.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 42c | 59.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…af02backed No | 59c | 54.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…51debacked No | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 222 | 57.7%128 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…2c65backed No | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 219 | 54.8%120 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf29d…add3backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2e…c5d2backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -59%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecf8…74d2backed Yes | 26c | 46.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8b…da36backed Yes | 27c | 44.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +103%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc74a…25a2backed Yes | 27c | 44.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…83adbacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26e8…1c01backed No | 60c | 32.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb00b…f17fbacked No | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaffd…7158backed No | 58c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardiansthis page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 13.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-5.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-6.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.