MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d55b2f5ba958bc7dbc038ee3037572b485781be4b5e0219c7e2df5bc7d0b6d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,693
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,074
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,693 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 42c | 4,155$1,745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,409.93 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…7501backed Under | 57c | 4,019$2,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,308.9 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 8c | 3,811$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.27 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…c736backed Under | 55c | 3,017$1,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,655 | 179 | 51.4%92 W · 87 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6796…2617backed Over | 38c | 1,259$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 43c | 1,185$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.45 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 43c | 1,049$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.67 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 62c | 638.56$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.91 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 61c | 464.43$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.16 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x990e…cecfbacked Under | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 42c | 164.83$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.95 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 57c | 129$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.03 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe81b…f35abacked Under | 59c | 109.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.89 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 41c | 98.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 61c | 80$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 55c | 71.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 42c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 44c | 69.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…d91abacked Over | 42c | 65.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.91 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | -10.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Under | 39c | 52.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x601c…7c15backed Under | 62c | 49.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 43c | 44.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Under | 61c | 34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 62c | 33.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 40c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 13.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-5.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-6.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.