MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x509cd88ac378d26afabba280e9ca676846ea5f5d27ec2e9f9d813899095a8d73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,148
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,212
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,148 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 50c | 9,608$4,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,803.78 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 50c | 8,229$4,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,114.49 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 50c | 5,525$2,763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,762.63 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1b…f28abacked Under | 50c | 4,103$2,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,051.28 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…cca7backed Under | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 246 | 39%96 W · 150 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 50c | 2,145$1,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,072.61 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 50c | 1,956$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$978.08 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 50c | 1,049$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.56 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 51c | 1,022$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.22 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 257 | 51.8%133 W · 124 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 61c | 994.62$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.78 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 50c | 700$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 39c | 508$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.07 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7677…37c0backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 51c | 391.15$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.66 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 50c | 390$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 39c | 305$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.95 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c2…dc0bbacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Over | 51c | 299.76$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.88 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 49c | 283$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.3 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 50c | 279.89$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.3 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 50c | 220.05$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.01 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 50c | 220.02$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 51c | 195$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 50c | 191.2$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.6 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9437…235ebacked Over | 51c | 185.94$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.11 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Over | 50c | 185$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 1,137 | 42.6%484 W · 653 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 49c | 139.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.59 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 50c | 139.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.25 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 39c | 135.62$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.89 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 50c | 113.77$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.89 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 50c | 110.56$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.28 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 48c | 65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…d91abacked Over | 51c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | -10.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 38c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95e9…67b6backed Over | 47c | 53.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 50c | 52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 51c | 50.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Under | 50c | 49.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 50c | 45.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 50c | 40.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked Under | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Under | 50c | 39.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 50c | 39.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe733…f6c9backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…eeb9backed Over | 51c | 38.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 50c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 39c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad6f…cc7cbacked Under | 50c | 29.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6f…6572backed Under | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 53c | 26.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 50c | 24.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 50c | 23.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 51c | 20.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc914…78a4backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…ed42backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 13.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-5.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-6.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.