TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,170
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,206

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,170 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Under56c10,730$6,027 inLost-$6,027.1711,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over35c10,347$3,647 inWon+$6,699.7510,97951.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L+139.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over44c10,200$4,512 inWon+$5,687.68,59452.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L+508.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under71c5,282$3,750 inLost-$3,750.084,08757.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L+66.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf18…3ca8backed Under54c3,704$2,000 inLost-$2,000728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-43.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x05c5…6a69backed Under71c702.61$499 inLost-$498.8550856.9%289 W · 219 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9930…696ebacked Over45c333.53$150 inWon+$183.4433148.6%161 W · 170 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Under71c281.69$200 inLost-$2001,24058.1%721 W · 519 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Over41c274.66$112 inWon+$163.121,79750.4%906 W · 891 L-1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa55c…1066backed Under52c233.06$121 inLost-$121.197147.9%34 W · 37 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Under71c140.84$100 inLost-$10043757%249 W · 188 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29de…d9e6backed Under71c140.84$100 inLost-$10058358.5%341 W · 242 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f20…5d31backed Over47c129.43$61 inWon+$68.612946.5%60 W · 69 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under74c101.68$75 inLost-$75.241,02658.1%596 W · 430 L+18.9wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Over45c96.49$43 inWon+$53.072,17239.9%866 W · 1,306 L+1.6wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a76…29dcbacked Under73c83.34$61 inLost-$60.842552%13 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0d5…573bbacked Over36c83.33$30 inWon+$53.331030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6dd…7af9backed Under55c46.23$25 inLost-$25.4321547%101 W · 114 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6844…d538backed Over47c36.03$17 inWon+$19.2412857%73 W · 55 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x03f8…99d0backed Over47c30.96$15 inWon+$16.4114154.6%77 W · 64 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49f0…285fbacked Under55c30.41$17 inLost-$16.738342.2%35 W · 48 L-9.7wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-25.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x56cc…d589backed Under55c22.85$13 inLost-$12.521,27857%728 W · 550 L+33.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41c8…424fbacked Under72c19.48$14 inLost-$14.0320662.1%128 W · 78 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2470…7ae6backed Under71c16.83$12 inLost-$11.957248.6%35 W · 37 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x624b…d3dbbacked Under71c14.39$10 inLost-$10.2210557.1%60 W · 45 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.