MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x113bcf64bd480d41abfe85ad5c14b634f979f25dbbb44f044dde8d6fe4320e16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,666
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,743
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,666 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 67c | 10,623$7,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,170.5 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 32c | 8,890$2,872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,018.13 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 32c | 2,847$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,922.87 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 68c | 2,219$1,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,508.51 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf3…aa3abacked Under | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 32c | 1,500$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Over | 32c | 883.09$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.5 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 33c | 346.73$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.31 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f20…5d31backed Over | 35c | 115.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.95 | 129 | 46.5%60 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed Over | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 34c | 49.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f8…99d0backed Over | 33c | 43.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6844…d538backed Over | 35c | 30.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 128 | 57%73 W · 55 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Under | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49f0…285fbacked Under | 67c | 29.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | -9.7wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue JaysBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 3.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-5.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-6.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.