TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,550
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,756

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,550 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Under65c3,881$2,535 inWon+$1,346.311,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Over35c1,500$525 inLost-$52545252.4%237 W · 215 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over35c900$315 inLost-$3156,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c5e…2ea3backed Over7c480$32 inLost-$32.16450%0 W · 45 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over35c439.99$152 inLost-$151.82,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under65c379$244 inWon+$134.558,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over18c358.15$63 inLost-$63.48,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked Over34c276$93 inLost-$92.9254642.5%232 W · 314 L+7.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over6c247.86$16 inLost-$15.622,01251.2%1,031 W · 981 L+43.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d91…3578backed Under67c165.67$111 inWon+$54.6714064.3%90 W · 50 L+11.4wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+15%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Over35c157.17$55 inLost-$55.013,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Over34c150$51 inLost-$5170744.7%316 W · 391 L-22.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over15c144.99$22 inLost-$21.759,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43ed…6232backed Under64c93.14$59 inWon+$33.9618244.5%81 W · 101 L-14.3wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-21.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x05b2…953bbacked Over19c79$15 inLost-$15.0110941.3%45 W · 64 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd3c…35cfbacked Over33c63.98$21 inLost-$21.1112752%66 W · 61 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc730…c568backed Over35c52.72$18 inLost-$18.4535747.6%170 W · 187 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e87…65dfbacked Over34c44.12$15 inLost-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-39.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x360a…1098backed Over35c44$15 inLost-$15.43855.3%21 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x657c…66a3backed Over35c33$12 inLost-$11.558855.7%49 W · 39 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe315…3911backed Over33c32.52$11 inLost-$10.868046.3%37 W · 43 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb092…48d5backed Under67c29.85$20 inWon+$9.853063.3%19 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6dd…7af9backed Under66c18.86$12 inWon+$6.3621547%101 W · 114 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.