MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fad7ede07e5fa33fb1cfe9bc4a8f0f1be4a2ab5eec73c0e405785b2f7c1c625
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,867
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,532
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,867 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Boston Red Sox | 39c | 10,797$4,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,540.87 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 8,957$5,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,373.74 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 21c | 1,899$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.21 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 68c | 1,786$1,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,208.09 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays | 10c | 1,469$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.34 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Boston Red Sox | 32c | 1,029$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.26 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 7c | 841$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.87 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Boston Red Sox | 30c | 630.43$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.36 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 613$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.45 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x694d…e762backed Toronto Blue Jays | 68c | 499$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.32 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Boston Red Sox | 41c | 408.53$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.81 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 66c | 247.87$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.47 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x776f…32b7backed Boston Red Sox | 34c | 235.29$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.29 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x434a…91cbbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 8c | 223.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Boston Red Sox | 26c | 219.5$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.43 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 207.66$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.26 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5519…f7e1backed Toronto Blue Jays | 70c | 199.97$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.98 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Toronto Blue Jays | 69c | 181.83$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.03 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 75c | 175$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 214 | 49.5%106 W · 108 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…b6ffbacked Boston Red Sox | 30c | 169.67$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.77 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +9.4wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Boston Red Sox | 35c | 157.17$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.16 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Boston Red Sox | 34c | 130.03$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.92 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 91.1$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.22 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Boston Red Sox | 34c | 75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 61.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 52.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 215 | 47%101 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…de2abacked Boston Red Sox | 24c | 44.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6844…d538backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 40.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 128 | 57%73 W · 55 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 78c | 38.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f8…99d0backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 34.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 30.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 30.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f0…285fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 26.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | -9.7wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…48a4backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 22.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 70c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 21.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue JaysBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 3.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-5.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-6.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.