MLB · resolved market

Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xacbd3e3d3a698a212099498f7dfd0308510d9a5dcba45aee3756a25fd373ee31

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Boston Red Soxof Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays
Resolved: Aug 13, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $43,105
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $43,317

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,105 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x3dfb…abafbacked Boston Red Sox	47c	16,686$7,843 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,843.77	1,385	49.5%685 W · 700 L	-4.9wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays	53c	10,589$5,640 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,640.19	10,846	51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L	+137.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays	53c	4,338$2,292 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,292.15	11,356	52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L	+209.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Toronto Blue Jays	49c	1,667$817 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$816.67	4,279	47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L	-83.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Boston Red Sox	45c	1,108$495 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$613.16	4,477	48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L	-47.4wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Toronto Blue Jays	54c	956.48$516 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$516.5	619	47.7%295 W · 324 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Toronto Blue Jays	3c	852.5$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.98	4,381	44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L	+77.8wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Boston Red Sox	51c	807.98$411 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$396.67	8,470	52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L	+510.0wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3635…053abacked Toronto Blue Jays	63c	768.25$484 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$484	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.3wins	-0.65per pick	65cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2728…4f96backed Boston Red Sox	42c	711.07$301 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$410.07	534	48.9%261 W · 273 L	-1.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Toronto Blue Jays	55c	678.31$373 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$373.07	1,063	48.2%512 W · 551 L	-11.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Toronto Blue Jays	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8,295	47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L	+72.4wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed Boston Red Sox	46c	492.28$226 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$265.83	655	49.3%323 W · 332 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Toronto Blue Jays	53c	463.93$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.99	6,899	50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L	-7.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x35f1…e67bbacked Toronto Blue Jays	52c	442.15$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.92	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+43%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x776f…32b7backed Boston Red Sox	45c	440$198 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$242	96	57.3%55 W · 41 L	+5.5wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Boston Red Sox	47c	414.76$197 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$218.14	8,086	46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L	+29.9wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Toronto Blue Jays	48c	358$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.44	2,969	48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L	-5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x72d0…c89bbacked Toronto Blue Jays	9c	316.15$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.55	110	37.3%41 W · 69 L	-5.5wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Boston Red Sox	45c	313.14$141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$172.23	3,453	51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L	+58.1wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb0b…62cdbacked Boston Red Sox	47c	247.51$116 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$131.18	795	43%342 W · 453 L	-3.3wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Toronto Blue Jays	53c	243.84$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.46	1,725	50.1%864 W · 861 L	-4.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x811a…9a3cbacked Boston Red Sox	47c	240.89$113 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.67	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa61…7f3bbacked Toronto Blue Jays	55c	229.09$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126	151	53%80 W · 71 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5519…f7e1backed Toronto Blue Jays	56c	200$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112	96	50%48 W · 48 L	-6.3wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5145…dd71backed Toronto Blue Jays	48c	200$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	27	37%10 W · 17 L	-3.2wins	-0.12per pick	49cpaid	-26%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1b0f…b7aebacked Boston Red Sox	39c	193.71$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.28	526	38.4%202 W · 324 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5513…de2abacked Boston Red Sox	49c	182.63$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.95	27	33.3%9 W · 18 L	-2.2wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Toronto Blue Jays	49c	179.42$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.17	1,056	44.3%468 W · 588 L	-25.9wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x87f7…8f45backed Boston Red Sox	51c	170.04$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84	464	44.4%206 W · 258 L	-18.2wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x24ce…da46backed Toronto Blue Jays	53c	158.67$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.1	478	52.3%250 W · 228 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Boston Red Sox	46c	151.69$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.91	716	50.7%363 W · 353 L	+9.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Toronto Blue Jays	53c	134.35$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.21	1,555	48.9%761 W · 794 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1cbb…3ec7backed Toronto Blue Jays	57c	131.04$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.69	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.4wins	-0.24per pick	57cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Toronto Blue Jays	54c	121.99$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.87	1,569	51.1%801 W · 768 L	+15.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bb8…7017backed Boston Red Sox	46c	108.7$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.7	133	44.4%59 W · 74 L	-5.2wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf15…a1febacked Boston Red Sox	46c	108.7$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.7	151	47.7%72 W · 79 L	-3.4wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b94…09dcbacked Boston Red Sox	46c	108.7$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.7	114	41.2%47 W · 67 L	-8.3wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-14%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Boston Red Sox	67c	108.24$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.07	1,879	40.6%763 W · 1,116 L	-39.9wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86fb…5976backed Toronto Blue Jays	52c	105.67$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.9	63	47.6%30 W · 33 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Toronto Blue Jays	53c	103.79$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.01	3,832	42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Toronto Blue Jays	54c	100$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	541	46.8%253 W · 288 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x702e…ff44backed Boston Red Sox	46c	100$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54	264	44.3%117 W · 147 L	-7.2wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked Boston Red Sox	46c	90.03$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.62	583	52.1%304 W · 279 L	+13.7wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f20…5d31backed Boston Red Sox	54c	85.15$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.21	129	46.5%60 W · 69 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays	30c	82.95$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.16	12,247	46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L	-68.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05b2…953bbacked Boston Red Sox	47c	78$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.34	109	41.3%45 W · 64 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43ed…6232backed Boston Red Sox	48c	75.45$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.23	182	44.5%81 W · 101 L	-14.3wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Toronto Blue Jays	53c	74.94$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.82	9,728	46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L	+32.8wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x61f1…7aefbacked Boston Red Sox	47c	74.23$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.34	399	53.6%214 W · 185 L	+12.3wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3453…8524backed Boston Red Sox	47c	74.23$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.34	385	51.4%198 W · 187 L	+6.9wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcbb…07d9backed Toronto Blue Jays	53c	72.98$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.68	253	55.7%141 W · 112 L	-6.2wins	-0.02per pick	58cpaid	-7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed Boston Red Sox	46c	70.09$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.85	562	53.2%299 W · 263 L	+13.2wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2470…7ae6backed Toronto Blue Jays	54c	68.93$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.22	72	48.6%35 W · 37 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Boston Red Sox	46c	68$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.72	1,284	49.5%635 W · 649 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Boston Red Sox	45c	60$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33	556	43.9%244 W · 312 L	-38.6wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Boston Red Sox	43c	52.63$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	5,400	50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L	+17.9wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe36b…095dbacked Toronto Blue Jays	57c	52.63$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Boston Red Sox	46c	52.36$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.44	2,800	49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a87…fb21backed Toronto Blue Jays	54c	51.85$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	310	52.6%163 W · 147 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Toronto Blue Jays	53c	50.01$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.55	1,195	50%597 W · 598 L	+5.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x453d…2dbabacked Toronto Blue Jays	49c	45.9$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.49	44	47.7%21 W · 23 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Boston Red Sox	46c	42.1$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.73	2,944	47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L	+4.2wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5de8…f004backed Toronto Blue Jays	47c	42$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.74	56	39.3%22 W · 34 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe315…3911backed Boston Red Sox	45c	28.31$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.44	80	46.3%37 W · 43 L	-4.8wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9930…696ebacked Boston Red Sox	42c	27.26$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.81	305	48.9%149 W · 156 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03f8…99d0backed Boston Red Sox	56c	26.29$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.69	121	52.9%64 W · 57 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x18ca…22c9backed Toronto Blue Jays	53c	25.47$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	31	45.2%14 W · 17 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Toronto Blue Jays	54c	24.26$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.07	3,456	51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L	+107.7wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Boston Red Sox	51c	23.94$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.67	2,144	39.6%849 W · 1,295 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb6dd…7af9backed Toronto Blue Jays	53c	23.08$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.23	215	47%101 W · 114 L	-8.4wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Toronto Blue Jays	54c	21.74$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.74	787	54.6%430 W · 357 L	+27.5wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
1st 5 Innings Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue JaysBoston Red Sox won
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 3.5Over won
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5Over won
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Over won
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Under won
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-5.5)Boston Red Sox won
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-6.5)Boston Red Sox won
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event