MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe92f616884b3c1e4d2209c61d1be8225973a087e508ba6ccbb36a6360298d0e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,249
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,149
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,249 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 45c | 2,861$1,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,576.52 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa90…c709backed No | 54c | 1,500$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.99 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed No | 54c | 1,489$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.72 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Yes | 46c | 869.57$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.57 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…0a73backed No | 56c | 625$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 186 | 58.6%109 W · 77 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 45c | 563.79$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.08 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 45c | 526.38$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.18 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed No | 55c | 499.99$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.99 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed No | 55c | 460$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253 | 204 | 55.9%114 W · 90 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…f636backed No | 55c | 433.21$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.27 | 233 | 57.9%135 W · 98 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Yes | 46c | 414.76$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.97 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 43c | 390.51$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…712dbacked No | 55c | 370$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.5 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3252…1d21backed No | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 340 | 45%153 W · 187 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 47c | 251.96$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.54 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 45c | 250$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.5 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed No | 55c | 227.27$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 281 | 52%146 W · 135 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a76…29dcbacked No | 61c | 204.97$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.03 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 53c | 195.27$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.06 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 47c | 169.37$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.08 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed No | 56c | 155$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.8 | 423 | 55.6%235 W · 188 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Yes | 45c | 120$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Yes | 46c | 109.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.04 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 478 | 50.4%241 W · 237 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…fd79backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 185 | 56.2%104 W · 81 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ae…d117backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69b0…293fbacked No | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Yes | 47c | 88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.64 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8957…0be4backed No | 55c | 84.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 46c | 73.01$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Yes | 46c | 64.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed7…aae7backed No | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffd…3ef3backed No | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7f…bb6dbacked No | 54c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Yes | 48c | 41.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbb…c7fbbacked No | 55c | 40.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Yes | 46c | 37.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe84e…b520backed No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9f…10cabacked No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 326 | 52.5%171 W · 155 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf729…35fbbacked No | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6540backed Yes | 48c | 21.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 148 | 48.6%72 W · 76 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Yes | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c19…60c1backed No | 54c | 20.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigersthis page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit TigersBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-4.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.