MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f343d45c578428a86fb9c5e5c74535fdfcad28cdb23ad2f4e6a2f808768d3ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Baltimore Orioles, Detroit Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,524
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,004
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,524 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Detroit Tigers | 53c | 1,221$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.03 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Detroit Tigers | 42c | 1,056$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.56 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…048bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 754.09$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.85 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Detroit Tigers | 61c | 751.38$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.68 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Baltimore Orioles | 42c | 712.21$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.29 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 536.92$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.66 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Baltimore Orioles | 46c | 463.72$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.6 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 396$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.86 | 91 | 65.9%60 W · 31 L | +11.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 395.9$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.44 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 343.43$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.92 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2805…76edbacked Detroit Tigers | 48c | 308$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.84 | 212 | 42%89 W · 123 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f1…5729backed Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 224.08$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.63 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Detroit Tigers | 56c | 191.64$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.99 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Baltimore Orioles | 70c | 146.77$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.67 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 122$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.06 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Baltimore Orioles | 41c | 68.78$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.58 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Baltimore Orioles | 27c | 67.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.19 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Baltimore Orioles | 52c | 56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Detroit Tigers | 29c | 54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bc…292abacked Detroit Tigers | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5998…b5a8backed Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 34.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Detroit Tigers | 55c | 20.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 18.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec7…4b43backed Baltimore Orioles | 72c | 16.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 15.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit TigersBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-4.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit TigersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.