MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe138b6d1cbde0c8fca18c89562a0b50ee969bc4ac6144e2bb980ab9b3e76e33e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,740
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,821
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,740 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 49c | 42,168$20,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,470.47 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 56c | 28,569$16,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,070.93 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 48c | 17,789$8,569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,568.87 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30c1…9f91backed Over | 46c | 10,870$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,869.56 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a0…b16bbacked Under | 35c | 8,571$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 55c | 5,952$3,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,658.49 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 62c | 4,743$2,941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,940.66 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 58c | 4,562$2,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,646.65 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 45c | 3,931$1,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,151.09 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Under | 54c | 3,913$2,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,112.97 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa90…c709backed Under | 55c | 1,923$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,057.82 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 38c | 1,905$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,181.1 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 38c | 1,426$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.64 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 45c | 1,178$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.78 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 47c | 801.6$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.17 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 38c | 500$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 38c | 500$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.88 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 51c | 390.8$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.94 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 56c | 365.04$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.28 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 38c | 285$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.7 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 39c | 282.07$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.06 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 38c | 176$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.12 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…3c9fbacked Under | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…86d3backed Under | 34c | 109.91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Under | 35c | 107.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 309 | 34.3%106 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Over | 59c | 98.69$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked Over | 47c | 80.55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bed…c30bbacked Under | 49c | 72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 50c | 68.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Over | 54c | 66.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Over | 39c | 60.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.97 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Under | 59c | 55.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 53c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Over | 73c | 46.14$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 61c | 45.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 57c | 41.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4930…1196backed Over | 51c | 40.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 38c | 36.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 49c | 34.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9b…f703backed Under | 46c | 25.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 62c | 23.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Over | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 310 | 52.6%163 W · 147 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 55c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 63c | 18.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf508…30a5backed Over | 56c | 17.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit TigersBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-4.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit TigersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.