MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e9a49aec9f385056503c8d92fcbcc9ad714aada3106c84690cb86605ec00d64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $119,717
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $120,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,717 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 48c | 34,380$16,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,591.64 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 53c | 25,586$13,447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,138.25 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…8409backed Over | 50c | 20,076$10,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,038.24 | 260 | 54.2%141 W · 119 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a0…b16bbacked Under | 26c | 15,518$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 52c | 14,667$7,627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,626.94 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 49c | 13,410$6,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,830.07 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…5030backed Over | 48c | 10,000$4,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,200 | 362 | 46.1%167 W · 195 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 51c | 7,693$3,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,802.46 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 51c | 4,800$2,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,447.87 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 50c | 4,315$2,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,156.63 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 51c | 4,177$2,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,134.31 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 50c | 3,998$1,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,998.97 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 50c | 3,489$1,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,744.7 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 48c | 2,242$1,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,165.94 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78cc…a081backed Under | 52c | 2,212$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Under | 50c | 1,942$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970.84 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 48c | 1,365$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.8 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 50c | 1,078$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.22 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 50c | 970.4$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.42 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 48c | 943.33$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.53 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 52c | 934.65$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.02 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 49c | 836$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.36 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 56c | 752.76$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.03 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 50c | 731.69$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.85 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…5465backed Over | 49c | 699.27$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.63 | 99 | 56.6%56 W · 43 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 50c | 539$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.33 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 48c | 528.04$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.89 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…9bb3backed Over | 46c | 368$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.44 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 48c | 310.65$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.54 | 413 | 46.7%193 W · 220 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Under | 51c | 307.88$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.02 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 49c | 232$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.32 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x886e…afd6backed Under | 51c | 223.53$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 50c | 220.02$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…3c9fbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Under | 52c | 192.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 52c | 180$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 28c | 168.12$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.04 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 23c | 160$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Under | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 541 | 46.8%253 W · 288 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 23c | 122.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc1…53babacked Under | 51c | 117.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 48c | 116.39$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.52 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 48c | 99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 48c | 98.07$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.51 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3443…64e9backed Over | 80c | 96.94$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 70 | 80%56 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Under | 47c | 91.23$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.96 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Over | 49c | 90.07$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.94 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…ada1backed Under | 51c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 50c | 64.83$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.54 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39bd…35dabacked Over | 59c | 63.36$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Over | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 286 | 39.2%112 W · 174 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Over | 49c | 61.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 48c | 61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc262…6587backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae8c…dc39backed Under | 51c | 53.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6c…776fbacked Under | 51c | 52.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 50c | 50.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…9642backed Under | 52c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | -8.9wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 51c | 43.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…abe3backed Under | 52c | 39.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 351 | 49.3%173 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70cf…40ecbacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 120 | 53.3%64 W · 56 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x093a…e580backed Under | 52c | 37.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…9070backed Over | 50c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 272 | 52.9%144 W · 128 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Over | 49c | 30.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 52c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…5ed1backed Over | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 242 | 63.6%154 W · 88 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 48c | 24.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Over | 50c | 24.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 45c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…a79abacked Under | 46c | 22.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc5…7ac4backed Under | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit TigersBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-4.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit TigersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.