MLB · resolved market
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65cb5d356d0d0ab87cfcbbdb0f1987b795efada1732bad3ec032f63d0c17b776
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Detroit Tigers, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $136,182
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $135,712
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $136,182 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Detroit Tigers | 36c | 128,904$46,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46,405.5 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 111,227$71,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,041.76 | 260 | 56.5%147 W · 113 L | +13.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 4,976$3,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,790.7 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Detroit Tigers | 36c | 4,055$1,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,479.38 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 3,980$2,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,452.49 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 3,626$2,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,305.28 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 1,886$1,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.69 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 1,101$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.22 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 1,024$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.64 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 991$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.76 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Baltimore Orioles | 79c | 605.7$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.09 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc919…d1ddbacked Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 556.13$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.21 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.72 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Detroit Tigers | 7c | 357$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 352$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.72 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Detroit Tigers | 9c | 263.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a1…ceb5backed Detroit Tigers | 35c | 242.86$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 131 | 53.4%70 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 198$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.3 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 168$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.64 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 70c | 149.23$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.47 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Detroit Tigers | 35c | 142.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Baltimore Orioles | 67c | 94.98$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Detroit Tigers | 37c | 81.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 70$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Detroit Tigers | 37c | 61.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 241 | 49%118 W · 123 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Baltimore Orioles | 78c | 56.39$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Baltimore Orioles | 74c | 56.22$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…9642backed Detroit Tigers | 37c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | -8.9wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Detroit Tigers | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Detroit Tigers | 25c | 46.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb3…b370backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 45.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 195 | 55.9%109 W · 86 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 75c | 36.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d3…5639backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 26.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 206 | 54.4%112 W · 94 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9209…b4d5backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 26.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb4…4551backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 21.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 211 | 52.6%111 W · 100 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b89…23fbbacked Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Baltimore Orioles | 77c | 19.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…4efebacked Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 15.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit TigersBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-4.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit TigersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.