MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec5d4dc6c02cd9ddc459157cca6afd550cad3e43f28d7b97ca39f7abef80a01d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Baltimore Orioles, Detroit Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,799
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,115
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,799 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Detroit Tigers | 51c | 4,610$2,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,343.66 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 2,302$882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,420.4 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 747.61$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.41 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Baltimore Orioles | 78c | 586.66$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.81 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 560.59$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.17 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Detroit Tigers | 42c | 449.76$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.53 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 433.99$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.76 | 91 | 65.9%60 W · 31 L | +11.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Detroit Tigers | 54c | 432.5$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.44 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1d…f2dfbacked Baltimore Orioles | 74c | 246$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.96 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 49c | 239.98$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.39 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Baltimore Orioles | 35c | 201.47$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.95 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda31…f8acbacked Baltimore Orioles | 31c | 201.4$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.96 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 73c | 155.24$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Baltimore Orioles | 35c | 132.22$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.67 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 111.91$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.77 | 168 | 51.8%87 W · 81 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Detroit Tigers | 65c | 107.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Detroit Tigers | 64c | 107.47$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.78 | 516 | 46.9%242 W · 274 L | -21.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Detroit Tigers | 64c | 106$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.96 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Detroit Tigers | 51c | 102.96$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.51 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 102.25$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.59 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 67c | 87.11$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Detroit Tigers | 50c | 83.46$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 532 | 38.5%205 W · 327 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Baltimore Orioles | 67c | 75.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Detroit Tigers | 39c | 74.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 795 | 55.6%442 W · 353 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Baltimore Orioles | 45c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Baltimore Orioles | 35c | 69.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Detroit Tigers | 50c | 67.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Detroit Tigers | 59c | 65.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Detroit Tigers | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Detroit Tigers | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 467 | 59.7%279 W · 188 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec7…4b43backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 59.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Detroit Tigers | 52c | 51.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Detroit Tigers | 51c | 47.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 45.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 39.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Detroit Tigers | 33c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Detroit Tigers | 37c | 32.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab1…638bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 52c | 32.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 68cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 31.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 31.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c76…6e88backed Baltimore Orioles | 74c | 29.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Detroit Tigers | 66c | 27.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Detroit Tigers | 65c | 24.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x858c…84b1backed Detroit Tigers | 65c | 21.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit TigersBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-4.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit TigersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.