MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f9f80c8eae462f4ae63e8ef61897f983fedfa8bf43a27896c4680adc20acbdf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Miami Marlins, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,716
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,951
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,716 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 9,108$5,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,183.01 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Mets | 35c | 8,544$3,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,003.43 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked New York Mets | 39c | 3,148$1,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,221.63 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 2,078$1,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.54 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…7f85backed Miami Marlins | 78c | 1,282$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.05 | 32 | 81.3%26 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Mets | 27c | 1,030$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.16 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed New York Mets | 35c | 999.99$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.98 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 811.7$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.1 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed New York Mets | 24c | 798$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.52 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked New York Mets | 33c | 687.31$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.26 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 600.58$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.2 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 503.61$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.96 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Miami Marlins | 69c | 500$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Miami Marlins | 67c | 465.49$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.68 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a76…29dcbacked Miami Marlins | 49c | 459.02$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.1 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Miami Marlins | 66c | 438.38$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.82 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New York Mets | 25c | 333.05$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.5 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 244.15$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.57 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed New York Mets | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Miami Marlins | 27c | 200$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Mets | 36c | 192.95$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.51 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed New York Mets | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Miami Marlins | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 252 | 60.3%152 W · 100 L | +16.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 98.79$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed New York Mets | 35c | 91.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed New York Mets | 35c | 84.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked New York Mets | 31c | 65.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 1,813 | 49.1%891 W · 922 L | -26.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked New York Mets | 26c | 42.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Miami Marlins | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins | 74c | 39.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 30.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked New York Mets | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x801e…b401backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Miami Marlins | 68c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…9bc1backed Miami Marlins | 69c | 19.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 360 | 50.3%181 W · 179 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Miami Marlins | 70c | 17.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. New York MetsMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.