MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7f386d58e126f8847e79144256f87d8c18ea321b3798341a2a66815c7645443
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 54c | 11,398$6,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,296.77 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf499…b5d9backed Over | 50c | 8,438$4,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,200 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Over | 50c | 8,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 991 | 49.9%495 W · 496 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 7,184$3,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,557.72 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 50c | 5,784$2,903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,902.73 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…5030backed Over | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,450 | 362 | 46.1%167 W · 195 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Under | 50c | 4,218$2,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,108.95 | 224 | 47.3%106 W · 118 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 50c | 2,681$1,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,340.25 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 878 | 50.5%443 W · 435 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 49c | 1,755$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862.88 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 50c | 1,600$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 647 | 52.4%339 W · 308 L | +28.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Under | 51c | 1,200$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588 | 570 | 53.3%304 W · 266 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 49c | 1,024$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.24 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 71c | 837.21$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.31 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 50c | 789.19$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.48 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 33c | 706.68$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.27 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 49c | 608.66$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.24 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 45c | 578$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.79 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 45c | 516.19$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.74 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 45c | 385.97$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.69 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 50c | 351.94$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.53 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e79…56dcbacked Over | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…e183backed Under | 51c | 274.51$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.51 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…1306backed Under | 51c | 252.94$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.94 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 25c | 239$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.82 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 26c | 229.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.18 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 42c | 222.17$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.31 | 1,022 | 50.6%517 W · 505 L | +54.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 1,201 | 49.1%590 W · 611 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffb…df76backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 52c | 184$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.32 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 44c | 140.43$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.31 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 44c | 134.8$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.97 | 1,026 | 58.1%596 W · 430 L | +18.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ec…f645backed Over | 50c | 128$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -4.6wins | -0.27per pick | 45cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 42c | 110.85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 41c | 110$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,194 | 29%346 W · 848 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 50c | 106.38$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.31 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Over | 51c | 102.56$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.31 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Under | 61c | 101.98$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 754 | 53.2%401 W · 353 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x841f…ad4bbacked Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfc…c59abacked Under | 60c | 92.58$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 48c | 73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 45c | 59.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 60c | 55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Over | 45c | 53.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Over | 45c | 32.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 583 | 58.5%341 W · 242 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x472e…f338backed Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 895 | 48.3%432 W · 463 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 45c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 56c | 26.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Over | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 532 | 38.5%205 W · 327 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 60c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 45c | 23.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 50c | 21.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 838 | 54.7%458 W · 380 L | +29.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…2dfabacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. New York MetsMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.