TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Miami Marlinsof Miami Marlins, New York Mets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$270,145
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$275,998

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $270,145 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 180 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed New York Mets49c40,064$19,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,548.3710,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Miami Marlins47c28,168$13,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,949.543,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed New York Mets53c13,208$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,0001,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Miami Marlins47c13,115$6,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,950.7777053.9%415 W · 355 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd47d…322bbacked New York Mets54c7,700$4,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,157.9713552.6%71 W · 64 L+9.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x16bb…8492backed Miami Marlins46c7,674$3,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,143.886548.7%421 W · 444 L-8.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ef…2864backed New York Mets53c7,666$4,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,062.9820845.2%94 W · 114 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Mets5c7,098$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.334,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Mets39c3,656$1,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,432.078,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Miami Marlins50c3,426$1,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,705.172,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Miami Marlins47c3,000$1,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,59098149.8%489 W · 492 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked New York Mets52c2,800$1,456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,456.111,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed New York Mets37c2,480$917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$917.351,77749.5%880 W · 897 L+25.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x73f6…a10abacked New York Mets53c2,000$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,06017150.3%86 W · 85 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Miami Marlins47c2,000$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0605,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a8c…ba13backed Miami Marlins78c1,990$1,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.7115851.9%82 W · 76 L-12.5wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-10.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Miami Marlins71c1,927$1,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.695045.2%429 W · 521 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4699…5051backed New York Mets7c1,857$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13016814.3%24 W · 144 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+18.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked New York Mets24c1,724$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.698,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55b9…a814backed New York Mets10c1,652$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.7925447.6%121 W · 133 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed New York Mets52c1,600$832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83264452.2%336 W · 308 L+26.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed New York Mets52c1,578$821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$820.771,57248.3%759 W · 813 L-6.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins63c1,349$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.0111,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked Miami Marlins47c1,300$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68923758.6%139 W · 98 L+16.9wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+14.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2de9…5289backed Miami Marlins76c1,241$949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.7454945.4%249 W · 300 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed New York Mets53c1,187$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.744,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Miami Marlins47c1,165$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$617.456,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed New York Mets53c1,095$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.0151547%242 W · 273 L+1.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed New York Mets5c1,060$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531,1807.2%85 W · 1,095 L-13.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fc0…847dbacked Miami Marlins48c1,054$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$548.057042.9%30 W · 40 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Miami Marlins75c1,038$774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.632,01251.2%1,031 W · 981 L+43.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked New York Mets52c1,024$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.482,29051%1,167 W · 1,123 L+23.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c09…1ba5backed New York Mets55c1,023$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.66850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-7.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked New York Mets53c1,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5301,83650.8%932 W · 904 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked New York Mets52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52016753.9%90 W · 77 L+10.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb6e0…ff0fbacked New York Mets53c1,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53030647.4%145 W · 161 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x64ef…befcbacked New York Mets53c1,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53029046.6%135 W · 155 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fe8…72bcbacked New York Mets11c998.66$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.3624252.9%128 W · 114 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed New York Mets53c974.98$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.491,55548.9%761 W · 794 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x584f…54b9backed New York Mets53c942$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.2618741.2%77 W · 110 L-11.2wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x74dd…df82backed Miami Marlins48c928$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.5612035%42 W · 78 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed New York Mets32c897.54$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.024,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed New York Mets52c754.45$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.2792046%423 W · 497 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4483…c565backed Miami Marlins47c646.37$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.8225751.8%133 W · 124 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked New York Mets53c639.64$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.952,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Miami Marlins47c629.93$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.861,51551.1%774 W · 741 L+7.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb1c8…023abacked New York Mets44c626.93$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27515954.7%87 W · 72 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed New York Mets5c589.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.649,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6319…d371backed New York Mets54c560$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.42857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked New York Mets14c535.71$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7594034.3%322 W · 618 L-2.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8efa…894cbacked Miami Marlins47c501$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.5345445.2%205 W · 249 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed New York Mets53c500.04$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.021,13742.6%484 W · 653 L+10.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb46…48efbacked New York Mets53c500$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26513848.6%67 W · 71 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68cb…0000backed New York Mets25c465.41$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11648660.5%294 W · 192 L+40.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xccd8…f4debacked Miami Marlins48c448.98$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.4748147%226 W · 255 L-31.8wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x47df…f8b2backed Miami Marlins48c435.46$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.44560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ba7…67a1backed Miami Marlins46c425.52$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.7837052.2%193 W · 177 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x09af…9728backed Miami Marlins48c419.44$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.1189153.5%477 W · 414 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Miami Marlins48c417$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.841,13746.3%526 W · 611 L+36.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7eca…cfccbacked New York Mets53c400$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2121931.6%6 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.17per pick49cpaid-40.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed New York Mets21c370.49$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.158,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x16ad…b33bbacked Miami Marlins48c313.01$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.6911969.7%83 W · 36 L+18.2wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+24.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Miami Marlins46c302$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.082,04553.8%1,100 W · 945 L+32.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1e3…f1bdbacked New York Mets52c300$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15621449.5%106 W · 108 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed New York Mets54c299.97$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.981,48350.2%745 W · 738 L+5.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed New York Mets11c298.85$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3479442.4%337 W · 457 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked Miami Marlins68c287.73$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.6360348.6%293 W · 310 L-1.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed New York Mets7c285$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.161346.3%284 W · 329 L+7.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked New York Mets23c265$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.2552053.8%280 W · 240 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad54…006abacked Miami Marlins48c261.2$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.8258060.5%351 W · 229 L+30.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd2c…97c2backed New York Mets11c245.45$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279117.6%16 W · 75 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Miami Marlins71c222$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.41,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e94…5ba1backed Miami Marlins47c214.47$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.2846949%230 W · 239 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Miami Marlins47c213$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.8991749.9%458 W · 459 L-3.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93a0…6623backed Miami Marlins48c210$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.239846.5%185 W · 213 L-16.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x59b6…307fbacked Miami Marlins48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.3381257.3%465 W · 347 L-1.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f76…dcc9backed New York Mets25c204.89$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1185148.5%413 W · 438 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Miami Marlins46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1083,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94bb…02ccbacked Miami Marlins47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10624246.7%113 W · 129 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bb3…b370backed New York Mets53c185.22$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.1719555.9%109 W · 86 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2465…5d84backed Miami Marlins77c183$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.091,10079.6%876 W · 224 L+32.7wins+0.03per pick77cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9278…9a1bbacked New York Mets55c181.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013057.7%75 W · 55 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed New York Mets56c178.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10066448.2%320 W · 344 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ac…c3d9backed Miami Marlins61c163.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.9318272%131 W · 51 L+12.7wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+11.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4c57…e81abacked Miami Marlins48c154.17$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.172853.6%15 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked New York Mets52c138$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.7654642.5%232 W · 314 L+7.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36f4…0eb2backed New York Mets42c135.9$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.5385949.1%422 W · 437 L-3.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52de…8f92backed Miami Marlins78c128.2$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.214469.4%100 W · 44 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed Miami Marlins48c127.36$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.2388053.8%473 W · 407 L+41.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed New York Mets10c127$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.612,02139.5%798 W · 1,223 L-25.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed New York Mets27c122.58$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.392,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xab61…fb2bbacked Miami Marlins43c116.28$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.288647.7%41 W · 45 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc81a…c368backed Miami Marlins43c115.98$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.1140446.5%188 W · 216 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5430…fbbbbacked Miami Marlins48c114.58$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.5880855.3%447 W · 361 L+9.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed New York Mets33c113.35$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.73,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked New York Mets17c112.57$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.41,14142.9%490 W · 651 L-37.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-25.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0576…6232backed New York Mets52c111.29$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.8735047.4%166 W · 184 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17b6…8ef6backed New York Mets42c111$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.624436.4%16 W · 28 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-31.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f08…ed44backed New York Mets20c110$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2215851.9%82 W · 76 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc22e…eab8backed Miami Marlins47c106.38$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.3848851.6%252 W · 236 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.