MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a9691da978e7f685d80e0809647aface3989e4fc78f5c35fc60921429634130
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,333
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,864
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,333 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 58c | 13,202$7,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,544.8 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc25…1f7fbacked Under | 53c | 12,975$6,894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,080.8 | 439 | 49.4%217 W · 222 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 47c | 7,088$3,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,329.25 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Over | 43c | 6,977$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000.11 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 42c | 4,010$1,683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,682.98 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 42c | 3,772$1,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,584.35 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 47c | 3,471$1,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,624.72 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 42c | 2,866$1,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,213.38 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 52c | 2,645$1,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,271.01 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 57c | 2,500$1,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,074.97 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 42c | 2,139$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.26 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 58c | 1,223$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.66 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 10c | 1,153$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.85 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 54c | 562.13$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.55 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 42c | 468.97$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.97 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7cb…fbe2backed Over | 6c | 465$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 42c | 447$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.74 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 42c | 390$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.8 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x428d…8cb6backed Under | 57c | 339.62$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.64 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd56c…bdd5backed Under | 51c | 328.94$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.18 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 49c | 281.74$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.05 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 43c | 279.98$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.14 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 42c | 265.89$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.67 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 43c | 255.83$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 53c | 241.32$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.45 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Over | 43c | 213.3$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.21 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a76…29dcbacked Under | 63c | 204.83$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.79 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 42c | 199.03$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.59 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Over | 43c | 194.2$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.51 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 75c | 192.76$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.43 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Over | 43c | 179.34$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.37 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 31c | 167.93$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.56 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Over | 47c | 164.72$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.62 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 42c | 164.12$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.93 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 43c | 133.95$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.15 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x266c…6963backed Under | 68c | 79.41$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b75…409ebacked Over | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 315 | 49.2%155 W · 160 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6b…6533backed Over | 39c | 67.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Under | 56c | 53.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Over | 42c | 52.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x648f…bb7bbacked Under | 58c | 50.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Over | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…abe3backed Over | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 351 | 49.3%173 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 110 | 60.9%67 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 390 | 53.6%209 W · 181 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1,299 | 50.9%661 W · 638 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 58c | 27.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6f…6572backed Over | 44c | 25.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 58c | 19.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Under | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 3.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-7.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.