MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c6632801fb667396eddaa2a61055a7ff8af25211a04dbbdf6da573a5f75b154
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Seattle Mariners, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,488
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,734
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,488 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Seattle Mariners | 39c | 8,132$3,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,960.52 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 5,000$3,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,050 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 2,778$1,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,666.73 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Seattle Mariners | 40c | 1,625$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 1,625$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 1,500$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 1,133$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.33 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Seattle Mariners | 39c | 1,078$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.7 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 825.2$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.37 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 804.99$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.25 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7677…37c0backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 500$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 500$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 237 | 58.6%139 W · 98 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 463.01$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.66 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49e…e5e8backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 409.84$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 390$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.9 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 316.61$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.13 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Seattle Mariners | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 238.95$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.76 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 220$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.76 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 190.14$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.24 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 166.26$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.42 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Cincinnati Reds | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Seattle Mariners | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 92.62$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.13 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 76.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.16 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 76.23$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Seattle Mariners | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde4e…d6e9backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 64.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.23 | 84 | 64.3%54 W · 30 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Cincinnati Reds | 69c | 55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6b…6533backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 54.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Seattle Mariners | 54c | 42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Seattle Mariners | 71c | 38.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6458…2a3bbacked Seattle Mariners | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Seattle Mariners | 58c | 25.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 25.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 22.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…932fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 74c | 19.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6caa…4fb3backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 3.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-7.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.