TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
LGD Gamingof ThunderTalk Gaming, LGD Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$899,448
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,077,568

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $899,448 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 450 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd30…f316backed ThunderTalk Gaming46c72,046$33,457 inLost-$33,456.8922451.8%116 W · 108 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed LGD Gaming54c44,277$23,881 inWon+$20,395.2638235.6%136 W · 246 L-15.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked ThunderTalk Gaming21c39,000$8,053 inLost-$8,052.791,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe015…6ffdbacked LGD Gaming57c31,276$17,781 inWon+$13,494.9196048.8%468 W · 492 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6842…20d0backed ThunderTalk Gaming15c30,837$4,605 inLost-$4,605.071,01147.1%476 W · 535 L+21.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2f2…0550backed LGD Gaming78c24,299$18,927 inWon+$5,372.471855.6%10 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick65cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x203b…46e1backed ThunderTalk Gaming41c19,345$7,932 inLost-$7,931.536755.2%37 W · 30 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+24%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcae6…4f85backed LGD Gaming77c17,564$13,580 inWon+$3,983.8867276.9%517 W · 155 L+87.3wins+0.13per pick64cpaid+30.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x258c…7c23backed LGD Gaming52c16,667$8,680 inWon+$7,987.699144%40 W · 51 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed LGD Gaming54c16,666$9,000 inWon+$7,666.3551146.8%239 W · 272 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed ThunderTalk Gaming46c16,436$7,519 inLost-$7,518.5332150.2%161 W · 160 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xab44…7ffebacked ThunderTalk Gaming31c16,000$4,998 inLost-$4,997.7325944.8%116 W · 143 L+19.1wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+7.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked ThunderTalk Gaming46c13,700$6,356 inLost-$6,355.542,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed ThunderTalk Gaming23c13,644$3,129 inLost-$3,128.931,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf70f…3c97backed LGD Gaming56c12,919$7,259 inWon+$5,659.4716456.7%93 W · 71 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid+4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x695d…0d7cbacked ThunderTalk Gaming17c12,787$2,176 inLost-$2,175.6867553.5%361 W · 314 L+25.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed ThunderTalk Gaming43c12,701$5,477 inLost-$5,477.411,20054.1%649 W · 551 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6f1…5729backed LGD Gaming73c11,322$8,285 inWon+$3,037.2416162.1%100 W · 61 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xab4a…8be3backed LGD Gaming54c10,730$5,775 inWon+$4,954.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f3…5402backed LGD Gaming57c10,568$6,000 inWon+$4,568.341266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+32%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed ThunderTalk Gaming33c10,142$3,337 inLost-$3,336.811,11339%434 W · 679 L-44.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked LGD Gaming53c9,817$5,188 inWon+$4,628.3287844.2%388 W · 490 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked LGD Gaming73c9,319$6,769 inWon+$2,549.182,31139.4%910 W · 1,401 L-83.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x751b…73fdbacked ThunderTalk Gaming41c8,851$3,590 inLost-$3,589.5432555.7%181 W · 144 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed ThunderTalk Gaming26c8,020$2,061 inLost-$2,061.4281143.5%353 W · 458 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf377…4159backed LGD Gaming59c8,000$4,720 inWon+$3,280.0520748.8%101 W · 106 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed LGD Gaming78c7,942$6,227 inWon+$1,715.262,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed LGD Gaming77c7,942$6,111 inWon+$1,830.733,13133.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L-150.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b9c…704ebacked LGD Gaming72c6,773$4,854 inWon+$1,919.435865.5%38 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed ThunderTalk Gaming46c6,565$2,999 inLost-$2,998.691,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed ThunderTalk Gaming45c6,528$2,938 inLost-$2,938.411,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x32eb…ded0backed ThunderTalk Gaming27c6,413$1,750 inLost-$1,75031644.3%140 W · 176 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed ThunderTalk Gaming44c6,400$2,784 inLost-$2,783.9757957.9%335 W · 244 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed LGD Gaming75c6,325$4,762 inWon+$1,563.461,38937.7%524 W · 865 L-45.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3090…be73backed LGD Gaming78c6,255$4,884 inWon+$1,370.9814851.4%76 W · 72 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf496…fe79backed LGD Gaming76c6,172$4,706 inWon+$1,465.6230546.9%143 W · 162 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf23c…9f81backed LGD Gaming55c6,090$3,349 inWon+$2,740.3615062%93 W · 57 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xee7c…70f2backed ThunderTalk Gaming16c6,000$980 inLost-$98048533.6%163 W · 322 L+23.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc69b…2076backed LGD Gaming76c5,902$4,471 inWon+$1,431.3869741.5%289 W · 408 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x141a…d05abacked LGD Gaming72c5,581$4,026 inWon+$1,555.0121968%149 W · 70 L+28.8wins+0.13per pick55cpaid+38.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xe16e…bd58backed LGD Gaming67c5,495$3,702 inWon+$1,793.116043.1%69 W · 91 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f3a…5ad0backed ThunderTalk Gaming48c5,432$2,590 inLost-$2,589.624639.1%18 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96fe…e78cbacked LGD Gaming54c5,389$2,924 inWon+$2,465.631369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.23per pick46cpaid+39.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed LGD Gaming54c5,222$2,820 inWon+$2,402.185836.2%311 W · 547 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed ThunderTalk Gaming21c5,122$1,062 inLost-$1,061.591,06747%502 W · 565 L+3.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9671…3a70backed ThunderTalk Gaming1c5,000$50 inLost-$502844.6%13 W · 271 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce29…3b0dbacked LGD Gaming66c5,000$3,300 inWon+$1,7005952.5%31 W · 28 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+14.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa803…2949backed LGD Gaming56c4,855$2,700 inWon+$2,155.4111140.5%45 W · 66 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd391…b109backed LGD Gaming55c4,519$2,500 inWon+$2,019.114046.4%65 W · 75 L-17.8wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-20.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xba43…c6c0backed ThunderTalk Gaming46c4,506$2,073 inLost-$2,072.9617348%83 W · 90 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fd1…bfe8backed ThunderTalk Gaming21c4,500$945 inLost-$944.8655639.6%220 W · 336 L+32.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+5.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf64e…a1ddbacked LGD Gaming77c4,107$3,171 inWon+$935.968453.6%45 W · 39 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x071e…0d01backed ThunderTalk Gaming19c4,070$774 inLost-$773.785137.3%19 W · 32 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed ThunderTalk Gaming13c4,000$520 inLost-$52089943.4%390 W · 509 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x62c6…ab7bbacked ThunderTalk Gaming22c4,000$900 inLost-$899.7483560.8%508 W · 327 L+45.1wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9cf7…8c87backed LGD Gaming54c3,845$2,094 inWon+$1,750.871747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91a2…e415backed LGD Gaming52c3,545$1,851 inWon+$1,693.7113842.8%59 W · 79 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed LGD Gaming55c3,507$1,929 inWon+$1,578.1547838.7%185 W · 293 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x58a3…5336backed ThunderTalk Gaming45c3,408$1,550 inLost-$1,5506663.6%42 W · 24 L+9.3wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+44%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked ThunderTalk Gaming45c3,285$1,490 inLost-$1,490.241,21254.5%660 W · 552 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed ThunderTalk Gaming45c3,244$1,467 inLost-$1,466.9454756.9%311 W · 236 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6401…f240backed ThunderTalk Gaming40c3,090$1,236 inLost-$1,23637948.3%183 W · 196 L+12.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked ThunderTalk Gaming47c3,069$1,448 inLost-$1,447.8398956.8%562 W · 427 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2627…fa13backed ThunderTalk Gaming34c3,000$1,020 inLost-$1,02011940.3%48 W · 71 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked ThunderTalk Gaming47c2,985$1,402 inLost-$1,402.3520146.8%94 W · 107 L-9.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked LGD Gaming52c2,922$1,519 inWon+$1,402.5659248.3%286 W · 306 L+15.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9226…5a1cbacked LGD Gaming78c2,908$2,260 inWon+$647.927279.2%57 W · 15 L+14.9wins+0.21per pick58cpaid+43%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x37bd…2a26backed ThunderTalk Gaming46c2,900$1,334 inLost-$1,33464553.3%344 W · 301 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed LGD Gaming54c2,750$1,485 inWon+$1,26526729.2%78 W · 189 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a14…cba2backed LGD Gaming54c2,700$1,461 inWon+$1,238.966342.9%27 W · 36 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3df1…03e1backed LGD Gaming78c2,698$2,112 inWon+$585.1211276.8%86 W · 26 L+16.7wins+0.15per pick62cpaid+15.7%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x99ef…ba25backed ThunderTalk Gaming21c2,676$572 inLost-$572.428043.8%35 W · 45 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21d6…86fdbacked ThunderTalk Gaming40c2,485$994 inLost-$9942951.7%15 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked LGD Gaming63c2,288$1,447 inWon+$840.711,97130.5%601 W · 1,370 L-170.0wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-43.4%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x4d8b…ce22backed LGD Gaming79c2,249$1,772 inWon+$477.082759.3%16 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked ThunderTalk Gaming29c2,231$649 inLost-$649.182,67935.7%957 W · 1,722 L-153.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8813…47e6backed ThunderTalk Gaming40c2,134$854 inLost-$853.584055%22 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb66…c8dfbacked ThunderTalk Gaming39c2,121$827 inLost-$827.356248.4%30 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81f4…8300backed ThunderTalk Gaming46c2,083$949 inLost-$949.326848.5%33 W · 35 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf09b…584ebacked ThunderTalk Gaming40c2,043$824 inLost-$823.944856.3%27 W · 21 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50b1…861bbacked ThunderTalk Gaming21c2,000$420 inLost-$420.3533949%166 W · 173 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed ThunderTalk Gaming46c2,000$920 inLost-$9201,43557.4%824 W · 611 L+36.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x691a…12babacked ThunderTalk Gaming49c1,991$976 inLost-$975.817440.5%30 W · 44 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-13.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5d7e…2ef7backed LGD Gaming64c1,969$1,254 inWon+$714.8639162.7%245 W · 146 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed ThunderTalk Gaming45c1,943$874 inLost-$874.4864155.7%357 W · 284 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf3b…0375backed ThunderTalk Gaming39c1,880$733 inLost-$733.237647.9%180 W · 196 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95d2…1a3ebacked LGD Gaming72c1,776$1,281 inWon+$495.227343.8%32 W · 41 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf06…c9ffbacked ThunderTalk Gaming30c1,666$500 inLost-$499.8463352%329 W · 304 L+39.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+22.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3ee1…3e22backed ThunderTalk Gaming41c1,569$646 inLost-$645.655330.2%16 W · 37 L-6.0wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-16.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed LGD Gaming55c1,500$825 inWon+$6751,20835.8%432 W · 776 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc793…e656backed LGD Gaming69c1,456$1,000 inWon+$455.762268.2%15 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x565c…878dbacked ThunderTalk Gaming23c1,337$314 inLost-$313.5913530.4%41 W · 94 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7771…009fbacked ThunderTalk Gaming45c1,336$601 inLost-$601.071,00748.2%485 W · 522 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed LGD Gaming63c1,314$824 inWon+$489.681,92435.9%691 W · 1,233 L-97.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd3bc…5bd2backed LGD Gaming77c1,291$1,000 inWon+$291.1528948.1%139 W · 150 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67ba…246cbacked ThunderTalk Gaming24c1,270$300 inLost-$30026551.7%137 W · 128 L+12.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed ThunderTalk Gaming29c1,225$355 inLost-$355.252,20233.3%733 W · 1,469 L-72.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe46d…7e4dbacked ThunderTalk Gaming47c1,222$574 inLost-$574.342055%11 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+29.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1d5…54d5backed LGD Gaming54c1,220$658 inWon+$561.573959%23 W · 16 L+5.4wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+26.9%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x02fe…c5a5backed ThunderTalk Gaming40c1,199$480 inLost-$479.69339.8%37 W · 56 L+6.0wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.