TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs ThunderTalk Gaming (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
LGD Gamingof LGD Gaming, ThunderTalk Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$46,835
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$66,698

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,835 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa103…1c14backed ThunderTalk Gaming61c13,497$8,238 inLost-$8,237.986844.1%30 W · 38 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac23…a875backed LGD Gaming39c13,000$5,070 inWon+$7,9302343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f3…5402backed LGD Gaming37c5,921$2,200 inWon+$3,720.751266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+32%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x559b…4959backed ThunderTalk Gaming63c5,412$3,410 inLost-$3,409.5423445.7%107 W · 127 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed LGD Gaming34c985.23$333 inWon+$652.222,15653.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked ThunderTalk Gaming65c835.59$544 inLost-$544.4334151.6%176 W · 165 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0160…1224backed LGD Gaming35c706.71$249 inWon+$457.6923639.8%94 W · 142 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f41…5ffcbacked ThunderTalk Gaming43c533.7$230 inLost-$229.5423948.1%115 W · 124 L+0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked ThunderTalk Gaming65c500$325 inLost-$32548847.3%231 W · 257 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x203a…935fbacked LGD Gaming35c442.85$155 inWon+$287.8513964%89 W · 50 L+12.2wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+18.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6af0…fea7backed ThunderTalk Gaming65c383.82$251 inLost-$251.2510157.4%58 W · 43 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed LGD Gaming39c345.23$134 inWon+$210.792,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b34…a646backed LGD Gaming61c292.82$179 inWon+$113.822951.7%15 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed LGD Gaming33c277.01$91 inWon+$185.591,15645.1%521 W · 635 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked ThunderTalk Gaming37c271.11$99 inLost-$99.2528149.8%140 W · 141 L-1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7b8…31e6backed LGD Gaming38c263.16$100 inWon+$163.1626443.6%115 W · 149 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked LGD Gaming38c261$99 inWon+$161.8254934.8%191 W · 358 L-15.6wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed ThunderTalk Gaming66c208.34$138 inLost-$137.51,38545.1%625 W · 760 L-12.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked ThunderTalk Gaming66c189.52$125 inLost-$124.952,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked ThunderTalk Gaming61c185.23$113 inLost-$112.9959248.3%286 W · 306 L+15.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc69b…2076backed LGD Gaming72c174.08$125 inWon+$49.1269741.5%289 W · 408 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed ThunderTalk Gaming61c147.88$90 inLost-$90.461,11339%434 W · 679 L-44.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed ThunderTalk Gaming44c120.25$53 inLost-$53.2597854.4%532 W · 446 L+48.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x90a7…5ac0backed ThunderTalk Gaming66c100$66 inLost-$6621945.2%99 W · 120 L-0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked ThunderTalk Gaming15c95.29$14 inLost-$13.981,13431%352 W · 782 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd16…502ebacked ThunderTalk Gaming66c92.42$61 inLost-$613363.6%21 W · 12 L+4.0wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+41.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd0a1…6daebacked ThunderTalk Gaming44c86.82$38 inLost-$3815543.9%68 W · 87 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69d2…a218backed ThunderTalk Gaming68c85.58$58 inLost-$58.132948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1d9…facabacked ThunderTalk Gaming67c79.5$53 inLost-$53.27650%3 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd0f…3656backed ThunderTalk Gaming66c78.79$52 inLost-$523070%21 W · 9 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+27.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x853e…f16abacked ThunderTalk Gaming65c76.82$50 inLost-$501741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-15.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5cef…dbcbbacked LGD Gaming36c60$22 inWon+$38.212153.7%65 W · 56 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe713…2f7fbacked ThunderTalk Gaming61c60$37 inLost-$36.62254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc22a…8259backed LGD Gaming34c58.14$20 inWon+$38.1438144.6%170 W · 211 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb627…2d13backed LGD Gaming44c57.27$25 inWon+$32.2751552.6%271 W · 244 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeeaa…15cebacked LGD Gaming37c54.05$20 inWon+$34.0529637.8%112 W · 184 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d3e…986cbacked ThunderTalk Gaming67c50.24$34 inLost-$33.5130%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd7e8…65dbbacked LGD Gaming35c45.71$16 inWon+$29.717963.3%50 W · 29 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa7…3cfcbacked LGD Gaming44c45.24$20 inWon+$25.242055%11 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e1a…a659backed LGD Gaming37c43.24$16 inWon+$27.2418051.7%93 W · 87 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c00…49c9backed LGD Gaming59c32.33$19 inWon+$13.311057.3%63 W · 47 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed ThunderTalk Gaming66c30$20 inLost-$19.81,31049.2%644 W · 666 L-23.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d97…9c26backed ThunderTalk Gaming66c25.64$17 inLost-$16.821172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+15%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed ThunderTalk Gaming65c23.14$15 inLost-$15.0415642.9%67 W · 89 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x947d…dff0backed ThunderTalk Gaming63c23.07$15 inLost-$14.532638.5%10 W · 16 L-5.1wins-0.19per pick58cpaid-36.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf7ff…a74cbacked ThunderTalk Gaming69c20$14 inLost-$13.817552.6%92 W · 83 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0f0…9a41backed ThunderTalk Gaming53c20$11 inLost-$10.61957.9%11 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.