MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x883dab00c99cf92b3a384e87cb697af0234162b1f5ccfa86a625f0c46b776a4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,502
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,544
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,502 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 44c | 13,031$5,789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,789.16 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 72c | 5,809$4,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,644 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 54c | 5,334$2,903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,430.95 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 52c | 2,523$1,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,211.04 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd403…a817backed Under | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 4cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 48c | 1,842$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.35 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 1,578$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.65 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Over | 65c | 1,546$1,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.54 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 58c | 1,264$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.94 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…8f07backed Under | 39c | 1,103$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.83 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Over | 52c | 748.26$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.16 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 530.51$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.85 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 42c | 503.44$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.27 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 38c | 499.98$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.99 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2515…16b9backed Over | 59c | 472$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.38 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 44c | 417$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.52 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7774…2b2cbacked Under | 57c | 360$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.2 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a76…29dcbacked Under | 66c | 358.22$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 44c | 323.27$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.59 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 6c | 294$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7a…f252backed Under | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 41c | 269.88$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.1 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 52c | 252.3$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.1 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 46c | 239.15$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.14 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c10…b6a4backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 55c | 164$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.88 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 54c | 136$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.44 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Over | 52c | 126.15$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.55 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Over | 52c | 126.15$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.55 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Over | 45c | 110.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.24 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Under | 41c | 107$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.87 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 50c | 103.68$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.59 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.75 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 54c | 98.81$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…00b5backed Under | 41c | 90.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 43c | 88.2$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.84 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Over | 57c | 87.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 314 | 46.8%147 W · 167 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 61c | 81.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Over | 38c | 81.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.71 | 153 | 40.5%62 W · 91 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Over | 34c | 81.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.79 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 44c | 78.59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.01 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 57c | 71.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Under | 45c | 71.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 51c | 70.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 43c | 68.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424c…8580backed Over | 34c | 58.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.62 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +4.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Over | 63c | 48.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 267 | 62.2%166 W · 101 L | +43.9wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x294b…22d2backed Over | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 55c | 42.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91e9…aa24backed Under | 58c | 36.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 62c | 34.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0617…08d9backed Over | 34c | 29.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…2c72backed Under | 38c | 29.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 60c | 26.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 56c | 25.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 58c | 23.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098d…6cc2backed Under | 55c | 22.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Under | 58c | 21.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 476 | 52.9%252 W · 224 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x624b…d3dbbacked Over | 52c | 21.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 55c | 21.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 51c | 20.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia PhilliesToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.