MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16ee59a331f499e5461a0a34ed9426aff0a8c875d59b0c8fd1a4e05b006b6f06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof Toronto Blue Jays, Philadelphia Phillies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,020
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,104
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,020 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 29c | 1,190$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.54 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies | 71c | 1,126$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.7 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 28c | 231.08$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.44 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Philadelphia Phillies | 58c | 155.98$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.85 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 126.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.04 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 73c | 104.8$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 73c | 91.17$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 75c | 80.93$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 153 | 40.5%62 W · 91 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Toronto Blue Jays | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Toronto Blue Jays | 16c | 71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 64.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 59.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Philadelphia Phillies | 70c | 54.72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 445 | 53.5%238 W · 207 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Philadelphia Phillies | 73c | 39.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Philadelphia Phillies | 71c | 38.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…b5b5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 73c | 33.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Philadelphia Phillies | 71c | 30.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Philadelphia Phillies | 73c | 26.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7f…6d8dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 24.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 70c | 18.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 65c | 17.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x013f…ca85backed Philadelphia Phillies | 75c | 15.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.44per pick | 61cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Philadelphia Phillies | 78c | 13.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.03 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Philadelphia Phillies | 80c | 12.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 215 | 47%101 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia PhilliesToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.