MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57dbdfabd001a6efea9e2462c42d583dd21cf2b2d9b6817c775db43bb1820257
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,299
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,366
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,299 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x408f…b2f4backed No | 59c | 35,550$21,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,433.78 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Yes | 40c | 18,630$7,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,451.98 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Yes | 43c | 7,999$3,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,429.54 | 326 | 52.5%171 W · 155 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 42c | 4,754$1,985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,984.99 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Yes | 41c | 4,233$1,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,753.72 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Yes | 41c | 3,007$1,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,237.93 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 43c | 1,955$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.35 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 41c | 1,870$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.42 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed No | 56c | 1,785$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.4 | 204 | 55.9%114 W · 90 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0df…5974backed No | 57c | 1,754$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.39 | 222 | 57.2%127 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 44c | 1,486$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.45 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf65e…a55abacked No | 59c | 1,347$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.36 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…ad16backed No | 55c | 1,091$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.91 | 75 | 64%48 W · 27 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed No | 56c | 901.98$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.59 | 281 | 52%146 W · 135 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…5340backed No | 53c | 860$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9126…a984backed Yes | 47c | 855$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdc…e35fbacked Yes | 47c | 852$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd138…70edbacked No | 53c | 847$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 45c | 681$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.45 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 43c | 657.95$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.45 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…712dbacked No | 56c | 530$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.2 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Yes | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 42c | 474.99$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.24 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…f012backed No | 58c | 474.83$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.47 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb464…cd5fbacked No | 56c | 447.32$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.32 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21f5…c161backed Yes | 48c | 414.06$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +7.4wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 42c | 400$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked No | 55c | 370$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.5 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…d084backed No | 58c | 345$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…edc5backed No | 57c | 307.02$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.02 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc5…d36ebacked No | 67c | 290.32$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.32 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 44c | 235.4$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.32 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…7d1dbacked No | 56c | 232.14$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.14 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed No | 55c | 188.34$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.75 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Yes | 43c | 188$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.44 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…6b8fbacked No | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73aa…409bbacked Yes | 46c | 160.95$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.04 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6693…8374backed Yes | 45c | 155.56$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…fd79backed No | 60c | 142.05$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.05 | 185 | 56.2%104 W · 81 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Yes | 47c | 110$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8509…fd97backed Yes | 45c | 101$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xddb3…5fe5backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76b4…5027backed Yes | 45c | 89.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…9351backed No | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaea5…26e3backed No | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 194 | 54.6%106 W · 88 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07ea…f3a4backed No | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Yes | 45c | 88.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0477…631cbacked No | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 171 | 55.6%95 W · 76 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa422…d210backed No | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 40c | 63.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 45c | 55.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…1c6dbacked No | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Yes | 42c | 53.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…2c65backed No | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 219 | 54.8%120 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3622…083dbacked Yes | 45c | 48.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed No | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 223 | 52.5%117 W · 106 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70cf…40ecbacked No | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 120 | 53.3%64 W · 56 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8e…3dc3backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…51debacked No | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 222 | 57.7%128 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Yes | 44c | 43.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x193b…f6ecbacked No | 56c | 41.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee8a…69acbacked No | 57c | 40.18$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 146 | 55.5%81 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6540backed Yes | 44c | 39.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 148 | 48.6%72 W · 76 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked Yes | 46c | 39.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 193 | 56.5%109 W · 84 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…3d27backed No | 56c | 38.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde36…f41cbacked Yes | 41c | 37.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfc…6690backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67d3…b524backed No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 304 | 46.4%141 W · 163 L | -25.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeccc…f0f8backed No | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…af02backed No | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf48a…4d21backed No | 56c | 23.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea39…9d34backed No | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Philliesthis page
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia PhilliesToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.