TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

Dallas Wings vs. Washington Mystics

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Washington Mysticsof Dallas Wings, Washington Mystics
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$182,318
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$190,231

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $182,318 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 248 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbca0…9705backed Washington Mystics56c15,497$8,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,881.0350646.8%237 W · 269 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Dallas Wings46c9,791$4,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,529.51,76551.7%912 W · 853 L+53.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b0f…4633backed Washington Mystics53c9,364$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,364.14966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7120…7c4ebacked Washington Mystics55c8,373$4,641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,732.258228%23 W · 59 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6e0…9970backed Dallas Wings61c8,189$4,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,987.91616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.35per pick51cpaid-62.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1fa3…7e2ebacked Dallas Wings62c5,553$3,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,464.6633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-40.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Dallas Wings48c5,154$2,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,483.4712144.6%54 W · 67 L-0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2c8…142bbacked Washington Mystics48c4,404$2,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,283.05450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Washington Mystics39c3,849$1,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,337.6640550.9%206 W · 199 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Dallas Wings43c3,310$1,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,413.316633.1%55 W · 111 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-39.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Dallas Wings43c2,774$1,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,179.0219031.1%59 W · 131 L-14.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-43.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x849c…38c8backed Dallas Wings33c2,666$875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$875.033357.6%19 W · 14 L+3.9wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+20.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe1ed…25bebacked Dallas Wings51c2,600$1,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,325.972142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Washington Mystics48c2,209$1,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,140.9419458.2%113 W · 81 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Dallas Wings45c2,063$922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$922.4412045%54 W · 66 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Dallas Wings26c2,055$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.8936750.7%186 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Dallas Wings43c2,031$876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$875.9432150.2%161 W · 160 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x999a…9a25backed Dallas Wings42c2,012$846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$845.9110538.1%40 W · 65 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-31.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Dallas Wings46c2,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92015741.4%65 W · 92 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Dallas Wings52c1,941$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002669.2%18 W · 8 L+3.8wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+26.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Washington Mystics49c1,906$935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$971.717656.8%100 W · 76 L+12.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x99d6…513fbacked Washington Mystics58c1,761$1,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.62887.5%7 W · 1 L+3.0wins+0.38per pick50cpaid+78%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x124e…1c58backed Washington Mystics61c1,755$1,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.413548.6%17 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Dallas Wings42c1,740$723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723.051,61150.2%809 W · 802 L+37.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed Dallas Wings60c1,709$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,025.439354.8%51 W · 42 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc308…7b09backed Dallas Wings2c1,591$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8844915.6%70 W · 379 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8927…f5c6backed Dallas Wings8c1,560$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.813024.6%32 W · 98 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Dallas Wings2c1,500$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Dallas Wings51c1,404$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.3678548.8%383 W · 402 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Dallas Wings41c1,356$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.8210340.8%42 W · 61 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8ef…2864backed Washington Mystics39c1,353$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$824.867138%27 W · 44 L-5.4wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-19.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Washington Mystics52c1,305$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.0420340.9%83 W · 120 L-16.6wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-19.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf731…e5c2backed Washington Mystics41c1,220$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.512646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Dallas Wings47c1,150$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.2231043.2%134 W · 176 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2978…b511backed Dallas Wings53c1,140$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6004334.9%15 W · 28 L-3.9wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-42.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Washington Mystics56c1,136$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.8730347.2%143 W · 160 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Washington Mystics53c1,107$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.9850952.5%267 W · 242 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Dallas Wings42c1,034$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.2815346.4%71 W · 82 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0373…4057backed Washington Mystics42c998.98$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.418733.3%29 W · 58 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Dallas Wings40c998.5$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.9824852.4%130 W · 118 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Washington Mystics50c967.44$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.255255.1%304 W · 248 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc398…f446backed Dallas Wings42c950.74$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001040%4 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd21c…2afcbacked Washington Mystics45c944.29$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.691662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Washington Mystics60c899.48$538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.0715250.7%77 W · 75 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Washington Mystics53c879.94$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.3232540.3%131 W · 194 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Washington Mystics51c866.32$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.2189349.4%441 W · 452 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd75a…d264backed Dallas Wings42c866$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.72977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick60cpaid+32.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ed1…caa2backed Dallas Wings41c837.46$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3401838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ba7…dd5abacked Washington Mystics48c833.33$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.331080%8 W · 2 L+3.1wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+87.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x89e6…5501backed Washington Mystics48c800$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-55.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2906…555abacked Dallas Wings42c800$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3364961.2%30 W · 19 L+6.0wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+19.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked Dallas Wings47c795.51$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.176339.7%25 W · 38 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Washington Mystics54c725$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.510923.9%26 W · 83 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-46.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Dallas Wings42c720.27$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002268.2%15 W · 7 L+4.2wins+0.19per pick49cpaid+35.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Washington Mystics49c707.68$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.73040%12 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad0b…a514backed Dallas Wings50c700$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35013742.3%58 W · 79 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5843…db42backed Dallas Wings41c692.54$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.943063.3%19 W · 11 L+3.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+23.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Dallas Wings58c664$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.1226953.2%143 W · 126 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Washington Mystics54c659.81$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.8185158.4%497 W · 354 L+70.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfe73…7d93backed Washington Mystics51c619.6$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.715242.3%22 W · 30 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-11.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x584f…54b9backed Washington Mystics40c587.5$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.515746.5%73 W · 84 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd3e…5a7abacked Dallas Wings42c570$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.45362.3%33 W · 20 L+4.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+13.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Dallas Wings43c543$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.497740.3%31 W · 46 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x969e…b834backed Washington Mystics55c541.04$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.042917.2%5 W · 24 L-6.3wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-39.7%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Washington Mystics42c500$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2909139.6%36 W · 55 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91b6…4b40backed Dallas Wings41c487.8$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20012234.4%42 W · 80 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf148…0b4fbacked Washington Mystics41c487.8$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.82642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-22.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7e…b805backed Washington Mystics41c481.45$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.451163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+88.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd072…95e8backed Washington Mystics55c473.42$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.04540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Dallas Wings48c470.06$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.4413844.9%62 W · 76 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf03b…3ba1backed Washington Mystics54c462.77$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.774443.2%19 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ea…2f71backed Washington Mystics56c446.85$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.492661.5%16 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc1d7…47a4backed Washington Mystics46c442.03$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.419549.5%47 W · 48 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5724…dcb7backed Dallas Wings46c431.44$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-30.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Washington Mystics48c421.67$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.275141.2%21 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x114e…dcefbacked Dallas Wings38c400$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1515651.8%29 W · 27 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+12.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7106…1caabacked Washington Mystics63c397.92$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.92850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-22.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Dallas Wings43c394.27$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17019428.9%56 W · 138 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4126…e68bbacked Washington Mystics52c376$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.397368.5%50 W · 23 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x94c1…8036backed Washington Mystics54c370.37$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.371926.3%5 W · 14 L-5.7wins-0.30per pick56cpaid-59.6%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Washington Mystics50c358.65$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.1618850%94 W · 94 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xae3f…defebacked Dallas Wings57c350.88$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc214…105dbacked Washington Mystics53c327.46$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.45728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Washington Mystics48c311.9$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.2524546.9%115 W · 130 L+1.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5076…711abacked Dallas Wings50c306.78$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.5650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd51b…90a8backed Washington Mystics59c305.6$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.693762.2%23 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1a4…190ebacked Washington Mystics63c303.05$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6796…453fbacked Dallas Wings47c300$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.57944.3%35 W · 44 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6dd…7af9backed Dallas Wings59c300$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17713249.2%65 W · 67 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35fe…95f7backed Washington Mystics52c284.63$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.82250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3eb3…4d75backed Washington Mystics52c272.48$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.791163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c3…8b21backed Washington Mystics59c272.42$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.42850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked Dallas Wings39c250$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.59444.7%42 W · 52 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9767…1a16backed Washington Mystics50c230$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1156437.5%24 W · 40 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa07c…11a0backed Washington Mystics55c219.42$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.42650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb9f…a6c0backed Washington Mystics52c202.65$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.45666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick34cpaid+150.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3783…171dbacked Dallas Wings57c200$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1142744.4%12 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-24.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe65b…271bbacked Dallas Wings60c200$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010249%50 W · 52 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x28e0…2e6bbacked Dallas Wings40c200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803948.7%19 W · 20 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+17.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfede…436dbacked Dallas Wings58c200$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.