MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65b34487822725de768e9d3a23a51e864deb5456e949b1c3ef12ecc4f3361e63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,936
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,211
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,936 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e6e…be00backed Yes | 41c | 28,088$11,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,516.11 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed No | 59c | 22,828$13,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,359.64 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa90…c709backed No | 59c | 2,551$1,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.86 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc246…14c6backed Yes | 41c | 1,400$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.51 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +38%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Yes | 43c | 958.12$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.78 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c10…b6a4backed No | 59c | 846.76$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.17 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed No | 59c | 843.88$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.88 | 288 | 51%147 W · 141 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04e6…3914backed No | 59c | 555$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.55 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a6…71bdbacked Yes | 41c | 548.09$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.72 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 57c | 519.48$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.38 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…0a73backed No | 58c | 513.46$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.46 | 189 | 58.7%111 W · 78 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…712dbacked No | 59c | 510$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.1 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 40c | 419.87$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.95 | 792 | 47.5%376 W · 416 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a76…29dcbacked No | 59c | 384.63$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.7 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…92e5backed No | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea39…9d34backed No | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b2…14c2backed No | 59c | 291.17$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.38 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 39c | 282.4$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.21 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 40c | 249.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked No | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.3 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 41c | 196.34$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.03 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc7…7f02backed No | 59c | 180$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07aa…63bfbacked No | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 198 | 57.1%113 W · 85 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…9351backed No | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 54c | 160$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed No | 59c | 130$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 424 | 55.4%235 W · 189 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 55c | 119$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.55 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Yes | 46c | 105.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 198 | 54.5%108 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2e…c5d2backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -59%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 43c | 99.78$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67d3…b524backed No | 62c | 96.94$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad8…5004backed No | 59c | 91.88$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.67 | 188 | 55.3%104 W · 84 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Yes | 47c | 90.91$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.73 | 141 | 58.9%83 W · 58 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6b…b245backed No | 57c | 87.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 39c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…af02backed No | 60c | 52.58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 144 | 49.3%71 W · 73 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…2c65backed No | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 219 | 54.8%120 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…3c9fbacked No | 57c | 44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fcd…0a9cbacked No | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked No | 62c | 40.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked No | 62c | 22.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jaysthis page
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue JaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue JaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.