MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d600cf023abc255870413d5ddd79298a62cef44f6dfa51bde23396e26cfa35d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Toronto Blue Jays, Tampa Bay Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,918
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,918 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 18,031$7,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,403 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Tampa Bay Rays | 59c | 14,400$8,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,904 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Tampa Bay Rays | 53c | 6,131$3,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,881.58 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bd…b7aabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 5,318$1,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,967.66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Tampa Bay Rays | 59c | 2,500$1,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 1,259$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.72 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 621.05$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.99 | 161 | 32.3%52 W · 109 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Tampa Bay Rays | 63c | 551.1$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.76 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 55c | 338.27$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.22 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 58c | 330.99$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.02 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Tampa Bay Rays | 59c | 317.98$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.87 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 58c | 300$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 68c | 273.22$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.74 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 59c | 246$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 243.64$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.61 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 243.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 56c | 148.94$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.01 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 128.24$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.23 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 117$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 111.11$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.22 | 736 | 53%390 W · 346 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 109.52$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Tampa Bay Rays | 59c | 99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.59 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 58c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Tampa Bay Rays | 51c | 67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…d91abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | -10.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Toronto Blue Jays | 24c | 54.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Tampa Bay Rays | 58c | 53.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 44.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 49c | 39.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 39.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 39.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d38…cc4ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 37.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f5…f087backed Tampa Bay Rays | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 33.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 30.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Tampa Bay Rays | 55c | 28.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6f…6572backed Tampa Bay Rays | 58c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 16.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue JaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue JaysNo won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue JaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.