MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d63e46f9a665caf4757f0daaefaf53911fbe89a87a11fd4646b86fa5731aedc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,744
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,744 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 45c | 9,935$4,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,464.14 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 55c | 9,763$5,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,375.86 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 39c | 9,080$3,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,574.19 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 60c | 7,546$4,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,527.69 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31b3…b35cbacked Under | 15c | 2,679$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +105.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fba…fd69backed Under | 15c | 2,679$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +153.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf775…bd87backed Under | 14c | 2,143$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4848…71b9backed Under | 14c | 2,143$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x693a…1417backed Under | 14c | 2,143$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x829e…339cbacked Under | 14c | 1,429$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +261.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4d…3ac6backed Under | 14c | 1,429$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +261.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0be…540abacked Under | 52c | 1,154$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 67c | 1,030$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.57 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e8…9490backed Under | 3c | 978.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 42 | 0%0 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…7004backed Over | 42c | 859.71$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.8 | 217 | 67.7%147 W · 70 L | +36.1wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Under | 58c | 843.31$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.12 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 16c | 576.38$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.8 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa7…3767backed Over | 33c | 393.94$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.94 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Under | 25c | 311.16$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.14 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…44d6backed Under | 66c | 309.06$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.98 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92f3…b21cbacked Under | 66c | 281.42$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.74 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 40c | 270.9$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.03 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Over | 47c | 261.57$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.63 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a76…29dcbacked Under | 56c | 225$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…986cbacked Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 69c | 217.39$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked Over | 47c | 212$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.36 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 32c | 161.86$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.51 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Over | 43c | 77.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.31 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Over | 45c | 71.64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 135 | 58.5%79 W · 56 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 22c | 67.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.67 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 56c | 54.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…cc67backed Over | 55c | 54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Over | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 75c | 44.51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 68c | 40.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 44c | 40.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 57c | 24.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 3.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.