MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58d45f0d6567baad1885113dab08a6e82b3741a01d6df23ae9f753d0fb574907
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Detroit Tigersof Seattle Mariners, Detroit Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,554
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,554 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Seattle Mariners | 64c | 14,393$9,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,208.73 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Detroit Tigers | 36c | 13,533$4,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,613.19 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Seattle Mariners | 15c | 6,045$907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906.99 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Detroit Tigers | 51c | 1,142$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.12 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Detroit Tigers | 72c | 792.16$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.29 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Detroit Tigers | 37c | 697.45$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.66 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…f058backed Detroit Tigers | 71c | 674.06$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.48 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Seattle Mariners | 29c | 674.06$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.48 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f0…fe05backed Seattle Mariners | 63c | 559.39$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.42 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Detroit Tigers | 36c | 450$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Seattle Mariners | 65c | 431.05$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.18 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Detroit Tigers | 71c | 399$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.71 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 287.4$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.61 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Seattle Mariners | 74c | 270.27$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 250 | 66.4%166 W · 84 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Seattle Mariners | 16c | 229.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Detroit Tigers | 42c | 228.95$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.81 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…7348backed Seattle Mariners | 69c | 188.57$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b4…11adbacked Seattle Mariners | 16c | 159$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Detroit Tigers | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 314 | 46.8%147 W · 167 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Detroit Tigers | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Seattle Mariners | 29c | 131.3$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Seattle Mariners | 58c | 118.13$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.07 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Seattle Mariners | 30c | 103.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Seattle Mariners | 78c | 102.56$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Detroit Tigers | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Seattle Mariners | 24c | 95.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x829a…a748backed Detroit Tigers | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 187 | 51.9%97 W · 90 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba00…527bbacked Detroit Tigers | 31c | 42.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Detroit Tigers | 34c | 41.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed Detroit Tigers | 37c | 35.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…c664backed Detroit Tigers | 71c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 309 | 28.5%88 W · 221 L | -46.7wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Seattle Mariners | 65c | 26.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…e5b4backed Detroit Tigers | 53c | 20.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 446 | 51.6%230 W · 216 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Detroit Tigers | 76c | 17.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Detroit Tigers | 74c | 16.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 3.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.