TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,996
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,349

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,996 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes52c1,753$904 inLost-$904.181,38650.6%702 W · 684 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6738…c215backed No53c1,304$690 inWon+$613.96812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.9wins-0.36per pick49cpaid-76.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Yes47c914.23$430 inLost-$429.693,50951%1,789 W · 1,720 L+53.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked No52c746.77$389 inWon+$357.532,31052.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L+27.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f15…bdb3backed No49c609.73$296 inWon+$313.9879247.5%376 W · 416 L+2.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No48c446.34$215 inWon+$231.535,47150.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L+21.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb361…7348backed No55c327.36$180 inWon+$147.3610953.2%58 W · 51 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes47c313.01$148 inLost-$147.962,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25d5…11fcbacked No54c185.28$100 inWon+$85.287653.9%41 W · 35 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes45c140.52$63 inLost-$63.238,40347.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d9f…10cabacked No52c96.15$50 inWon+$46.156556.9%37 W · 28 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No55c47.61$26 inWon+$21.421,00344.6%447 W · 556 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0642…8c68backed No50c39.73$20 inWon+$19.7337048.9%181 W · 189 L-12.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33a5…3da0backed Yes49c34.48$17 inLost-$16.97349.3%36 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc730…c568backed No49c30.79$15 inWon+$15.735747.6%170 W · 187 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73b8…aa92backed No61c21.31$13 inWon+$8.3137951.7%196 W · 183 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.