MLB · resolved market
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x209cf9c33a4301423d96f97eb4b6d7a3111a7a8b5dca52bc4640f633816f248e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Detroit Tigers, Seattle Mariners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,294
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,259
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,294 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Seattle Mariners | 72c | 7,079$5,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,982.29 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Detroit Tigers | 28c | 6,523$1,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,828.45 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Detroit Tigers | 26c | 1,606$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.56 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Mariners | 70c | 405.37$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.61 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Seattle Mariners | 74c | 388.58$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.38 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Detroit Tigers | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Detroit Tigers | 30c | 366.7$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Seattle Mariners | 71c | 225.36$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.35 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Seattle Mariners | 76c | 168.46$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.99 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5181…504bbacked Detroit Tigers | 28c | 106.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Seattle Mariners | 74c | 90.32$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Seattle Mariners | 70c | 83.33$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Detroit Tigers | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b4…11adbacked Detroit Tigers | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Detroit Tigers | 26c | 62.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Detroit Tigers | 28c | 60.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 314 | 46.8%147 W · 167 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…1066backed Detroit Tigers | 30c | 46.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Detroit Tigers | 29c | 42.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Seattle Mariners | 70c | 33.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Seattle Mariners | 71c | 18.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 3.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.