TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,080
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,628

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,080 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa697…59d5backed Under68c1,568$1,060 inWon+$508.486,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over24c1,366$327 inLost-$327.412,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cd2…7f85backed Under77c1,296$1,000 inWon+$295.673281.3%26 W · 6 L+5.7wins+0.18per pick64cpaid+27.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Over7c1,005$69 inLost-$69.582636.6%302 W · 524 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under76c978.92$744 inWon+$234.9412,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over33c920$301 inLost-$301.411,29151%658 W · 633 L-15.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Over32c867$277 inLost-$277.442,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over16c631.18$103 inLost-$102.518,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Over35c314.31$110 inLost-$110.013,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Under65c280$182 inWon+$981,85153.1%982 W · 869 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under68c228$155 inWon+$72.962,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8e4…3b32backed Over28c93$26 inLost-$26.0429350.9%149 W · 144 L-0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Over33c87.2$29 inLost-$28.7887750.4%442 W · 435 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x765b…5043backed Under69c71.01$49 inWon+$22.016546.2%30 W · 35 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-16.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed Under79c69.27$55 inWon+$14.5555645.3%252 W · 304 L-17.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed Under79c46.66$37 inWon+$9.848751.5%251 W · 236 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe84f…b777backed Under79c46.18$36 inWon+$9.742451.9%220 W · 204 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e50…c665backed Over34c43.8$15 inLost-$1556435.1%198 W · 366 L-21.3wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb675…779fbacked Over32c40$13 inLost-$12.82429.2%7 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3da8…be26backed Over35c40$14 inLost-$1422352.5%117 W · 106 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under66c37.58$25 inWon+$12.8911,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6dd…7af9backed Under79c25.97$20 inWon+$5.5521547%101 W · 114 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c52…99e1backed Under78c25.64$20 inWon+$5.644975.5%37 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick71cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Under68c15.63$11 inWon+$578854.6%430 W · 358 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.